Incyte Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

INCY -  USA Stock  

USD 64.97  1.58  2.37%

Incyte Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Incyte Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Incyte Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Incyte Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Incyte Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Incyte Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Incyte Corp fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Incyte Corp to cross-verify your projections.

Incyte Stock Forecast 

 
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Incyte Corp PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Incyte Corp reported PPandE Turnover of 5.68 in 2020. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 8.16 in 2021, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to drop 24.06 in 2021. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to rise to about 126.6 M in 2021, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 215.3 M in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-11-19 Incyte Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Incyte Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Incyte Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Incyte Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Incyte Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Incyte Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Incyte Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Incyte. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Incyte Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Incyte Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Incyte Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Incyte Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Incyte Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Incyte Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Incyte Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 65.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79, mean absolute percentage error of 14.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,090. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Incyte Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Incyte Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Incyte Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Incyte Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Incyte Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Incyte Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.53 and 67.69, respectively. We have considered Incyte Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
64.97
27th of October 2021
65.61
Expected Value
67.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Incyte Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Incyte Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria727.2553
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.7867
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0318
SAESum of the absolute errors1089.5859
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Incyte Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Incyte Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Incyte Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Incyte Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Incyte Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Incyte Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
63.4765.0266.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.6976.9778.52
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0088.73110.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.012.252.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Incyte Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Incyte Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Incyte Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Incyte Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Incyte Corp

For every potential investor in Incyte, whether a beginner or expert, Incyte Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Incyte Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Incyte. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Incyte Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Incyte Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Incyte Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Incyte Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Incyte Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Incyte Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Incyte Corp's current price.

Incyte Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Incyte Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Incyte Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Incyte Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Incyte Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Incyte Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Incyte Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Incyte Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Incyte Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Incyte Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Incyte Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Incyte. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - INCY

Incyte Corp Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Incyte Corp. What is your judgment towards investing in Incyte Corp? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Incyte Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Incyte Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Incyte Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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When running Incyte Corp price analysis, check to measure Incyte Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Incyte Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Incyte Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Incyte Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Incyte Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Incyte Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Incyte Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Incyte Corp. If investors know Incyte will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Incyte Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Incyte Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Incyte that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Incyte Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Incyte Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Incyte Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Incyte Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Incyte Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Incyte Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Incyte Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.