Independent Bank Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| INDB Stock | USD 52.92 0.70 1.34% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Independent Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 53.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.23. Independent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Independent Bank stock prices and determine the direction of Independent Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Independent Bank's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Independent Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Independent Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Independent Bank fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Independent Bank to cross-verify your projections. Independent |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Independent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Independent Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Independent Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Independent Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Independent Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to Independent Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Independent Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Independent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Independent Bank cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Independent Bank's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Independent Bank's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Independent Bank works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Independent Bank Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Independent Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 53.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Independent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Independent Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Independent Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
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Independent Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Independent Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Independent Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.64 and 56.02, respectively. We have considered Independent Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Independent Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Independent Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2276 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9531 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.2334 |
Predictive Modules for Independent Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Independent Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Independent Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Independent Bank
For every potential investor in Independent, whether a beginner or expert, Independent Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Independent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Independent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Independent Bank's price trends.View Independent Bank Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Independent Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Independent Bank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Independent Bank's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Independent Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Independent Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Independent Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Independent Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Independent Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.35 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.7 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.77 |
Independent Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Independent Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Independent Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting independent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Independent Bank to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Independent Stock refer to our How to Trade Independent Stock guide.Note that the Independent Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Independent Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for Independent Stock analysis
When running Independent Bank's price analysis, check to measure Independent Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Independent Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Independent Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Independent Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Independent Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Independent Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Independent Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Independent Bank. If investors know Independent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Independent Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 2.22 | Earnings Share 5.18 | Revenue Per Share 15.836 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.1) |
The market value of Independent Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Independent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Independent Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Independent Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Independent Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Independent Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Independent Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Independent Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Independent Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.