Samsara Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IOT Stock  USD 38.39  1.01  2.56%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsara on the next trading day is expected to be 38.51 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.70. Samsara Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Samsara stock prices and determine the direction of Samsara's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Samsara's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Samsara's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Samsara's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Samsara fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Samsara to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Samsara Stock please use our How to Invest in Samsara guide.
  
Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.92 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 5.51 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 394.3 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to drop to about (233.8 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Samsara Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Samsara's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Samsara's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Samsara stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Samsara's open interest, investors have to compare it to Samsara's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Samsara is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Samsara. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Samsara cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Samsara's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Samsara's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Samsara is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Samsara value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Samsara Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsara on the next trading day is expected to be 38.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Samsara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Samsara's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Samsara Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest SamsaraSamsara Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Samsara Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Samsara's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Samsara's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.98 and 42.05, respectively. We have considered Samsara's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.39
38.51
Expected Value
42.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Samsara stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Samsara stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4141
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0113
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0296
SAESum of the absolute errors62.7021
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Samsara. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Samsara. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Samsara

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Samsara. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Samsara's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.8738.3941.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.3131.8342.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.8938.7839.67
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.3930.1033.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Samsara. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Samsara's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Samsara's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Samsara.

Other Forecasting Options for Samsara

For every potential investor in Samsara, whether a beginner or expert, Samsara's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Samsara Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Samsara. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Samsara's price trends.

Samsara Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Samsara stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Samsara could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Samsara by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Samsara Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Samsara's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Samsara's current price.

Samsara Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Samsara stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Samsara shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Samsara stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Samsara entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Samsara Risk Indicators

The analysis of Samsara's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Samsara's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting samsara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Samsara is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Samsara Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Samsara Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Samsara Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Samsara to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Samsara Stock please use our How to Invest in Samsara guide.
You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.

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When running Samsara's price analysis, check to measure Samsara's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Samsara is operating at the current time. Most of Samsara's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Samsara's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Samsara's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Samsara to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Samsara's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Samsara. If investors know Samsara will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Samsara listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.54)
Revenue Per Share
1.753
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.481
Return On Assets
(0.09)
Return On Equity
(0.31)
The market value of Samsara is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Samsara that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Samsara's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Samsara's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Samsara's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Samsara's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Samsara's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Samsara is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Samsara's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.