JAKKS Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JAKK Stock  USD 24.70  1.08  4.57%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of JAKKS Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 29.13 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.52  and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.15. JAKKS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JAKKS Pacific stock prices and determine the direction of JAKKS Pacific's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of JAKKS Pacific's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although JAKKS Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of JAKKS Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JAKKS Pacific fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JAKKS Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy JAKKS Stock please use our How to buy in JAKKS Stock guide.
  
At this time, JAKKS Pacific's Fixed Asset Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 5.64 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 8.99. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 11.1 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 85 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 JAKKS Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JAKKS Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in JAKKS Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for JAKKS Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JAKKS Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to JAKKS Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JAKKS Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JAKKS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JAKKS Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JAKKS Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JAKKS Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for JAKKS Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JAKKS Pacific value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JAKKS Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JAKKS Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 29.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52, mean absolute percentage error of 4.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JAKKS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JAKKS Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JAKKS Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest JAKKS PacificJAKKS Pacific Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

JAKKS Pacific Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JAKKS Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JAKKS Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.48 and 33.79, respectively. We have considered JAKKS Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.70
29.13
Expected Value
33.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JAKKS Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JAKKS Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3758
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5185
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0535
SAESum of the absolute errors94.146
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JAKKS Pacific. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JAKKS Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JAKKS Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JAKKS Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JAKKS Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.0824.7029.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.3522.9727.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.0925.8534.60
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.4828.0031.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JAKKS Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JAKKS Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JAKKS Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in JAKKS Pacific.

Other Forecasting Options for JAKKS Pacific

For every potential investor in JAKKS, whether a beginner or expert, JAKKS Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JAKKS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JAKKS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JAKKS Pacific's price trends.

JAKKS Pacific Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JAKKS Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JAKKS Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JAKKS Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JAKKS Pacific Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JAKKS Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JAKKS Pacific's current price.

JAKKS Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JAKKS Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JAKKS Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JAKKS Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JAKKS Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JAKKS Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of JAKKS Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JAKKS Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jakks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JAKKS Pacific in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JAKKS Pacific's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JAKKS Pacific options trading.

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When determining whether JAKKS Pacific is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if JAKKS Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Jakks Pacific Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Jakks Pacific Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JAKKS Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy JAKKS Stock please use our How to buy in JAKKS Stock guide.
You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

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When running JAKKS Pacific's price analysis, check to measure JAKKS Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JAKKS Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of JAKKS Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JAKKS Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JAKKS Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JAKKS Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JAKKS Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JAKKS Pacific. If investors know JAKKS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JAKKS Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.53
Earnings Share
3.48
Revenue Per Share
71.427
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Return On Assets
0.0919
The market value of JAKKS Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JAKKS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JAKKS Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JAKKS Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JAKKS Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JAKKS Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JAKKS Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JAKKS Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JAKKS Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.