Janus Asia Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JAQSX Fund | USD 9.54 0.04 0.42% |
Janus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Janus Asia stock prices and determine the direction of Janus Asia Equity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Janus Asia historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Janus Asia to cross-verify your projections. Janus |
Most investors in Janus Asia cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Janus Asia's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Janus Asia's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Janus Asia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Janus Asia Equity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Janus Asia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Janus Asia Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 9.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.011459, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Janus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Janus Asia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Janus Asia Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Janus Asia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Janus Asia's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Janus Asia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.53 and 10.29, respectively. We have considered Janus Asia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Janus Asia mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Janus Asia mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6415 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0861 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.2499 |
Predictive Modules for Janus Asia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Janus Asia Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Janus Asia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Janus Asia in the context of predictive analytics.
Other Forecasting Options for Janus Asia
For every potential investor in Janus, whether a beginner or expert, Janus Asia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Janus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Janus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Janus Asia's price trends.Janus Asia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Janus Asia mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Janus Asia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Janus Asia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Janus Asia Equity Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Janus Asia's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Janus Asia's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Janus Asia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Janus Asia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Janus Asia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Janus Asia stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.732 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7476 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8781 | |||
| Variance | 0.7711 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6498 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.559 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Janus Asia in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Janus Asia's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Janus Asia options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Janus Asia Equity using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Janus Asia to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for Janus Mutual Fund analysis
When running Janus Asia's price analysis, check to measure Janus Asia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Janus Asia is operating at the current time. Most of Janus Asia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Janus Asia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Janus Asia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Janus Asia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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