Janus International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JBI Stock  USD 15.29  0.01  0.07%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Janus International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 15.96 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.72. Janus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Janus International stock prices and determine the direction of Janus International Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Janus International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Janus International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Janus International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Janus International fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Janus International to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of now, Janus International's Asset Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. . The Janus International's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 130 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 128.1 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Janus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Janus International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Janus International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Janus International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Janus International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Janus International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Janus International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Janus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Janus International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Janus International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Janus International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Janus International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Janus International Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Janus International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Janus International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 15.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Janus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Janus International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Janus International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Janus International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Janus International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Janus International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.13 and 17.79, respectively. We have considered Janus International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.29
15.96
Expected Value
17.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Janus International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Janus International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.239
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2052
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors12.7203
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Janus International Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Janus International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Janus International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Janus International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Janus International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.5615.3917.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.1714.0015.83
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.0615.2315.41
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.1815.5817.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Janus International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Janus International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Janus International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Janus International.

Other Forecasting Options for Janus International

For every potential investor in Janus, whether a beginner or expert, Janus International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Janus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Janus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Janus International's price trends.

Janus International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Janus International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Janus International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Janus International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Janus International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Janus International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Janus International's current price.

Janus International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Janus International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Janus International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Janus International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Janus International Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Janus International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Janus International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Janus International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting janus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Janus International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Janus International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Janus International Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Janus International Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Janus International to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Janus International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Janus International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Janus Stock analysis

When running Janus International's price analysis, check to measure Janus International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Janus International is operating at the current time. Most of Janus International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Janus International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Janus International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Janus International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Janus International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Janus International. If investors know Janus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Janus International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.091
Earnings Share
0.92
Revenue Per Share
7.265
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
Return On Assets
0.1178
The market value of Janus International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Janus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Janus International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Janus International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Janus International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Janus International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Janus International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Janus International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Janus International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.