Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

JBL Stock

USD 82.54 1.44 1.78%

Jabil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jabil Circuit historical stock prices and determine the direction of Jabil Circuit's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jabil Circuit historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Jabil Circuit naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Jabil Circuit systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Jabil Circuit fundamentals over time.

Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jabil Circuit to cross-verify your projections.

Jabil Circuit Asset Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 1.68. Jabil Circuit Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 141.41 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 144.2 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (601.3 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Jabil Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Jabil Circuit's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Jabil Circuit's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Jabil Circuit stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Jabil Circuit's open interest, investors have to compare it to Jabil Circuit's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Jabil Circuit is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Jabil. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in Jabil Circuit cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jabil Circuit's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jabil Circuit's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Jabil Circuit works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

More About Double Exponential Smoothing All Equity Analysis

Jabil Circuit Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jabil Circuit on the next trading day is expected to be 83.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.75.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jabil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jabil Circuit's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jabil Circuit Price Prediction

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Jabil Circuit Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jabil Circuit's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jabil Circuit's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.37 and 84.62, respectively. We have considered Jabil Circuit's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 82.54

81.37

Downside

83.00

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

84.62

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jabil Circuit stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jabil Circuit stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	-0.0827
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	1.0125
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.013
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	60.7481

When Jabil Circuit prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Jabil Circuit trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Jabil Circuit observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Jabil Circuit

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jabil Circuit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jabil Circuit's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jabil Circuit in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
81.15	82.78	84.41

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
74.29	88.96	90.59

Details

7 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
69.00	84.71	100.00

Details

Earnings

Estimates (4)

Low	Projected EPS	High
1.75	1.82	1.92

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jabil Circuit. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jabil Circuit's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jabil Circuit's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jabil Circuit.

Other Forecasting Options for Jabil Circuit

For every potential investor in Jabil, whether a beginner or expert, Jabil Circuit's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jabil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jabil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jabil Circuit's price trends.

Jabil Circuit Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jabil Circuit stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jabil Circuit could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jabil Circuit by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Apple IncApplied OptAstroNovaAdc TherapeuticsArista NetworksADTRAN IncAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome Depot

Risk & Return

Correlation

Jabil Circuit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jabil Circuit's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jabil Circuit's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Jabil Circuit Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jabil Circuit's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jabil Circuit's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Jabil Circuit stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	1.38
	Semi Deviation	1.55
	Standard Deviation	1.76
	Variance	3.1
	Downside Variance	2.89
	Semi Variance	2.41
	Expected Short fall	(1.55)

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Jabil Circuit Investors Sentiment

The influence of Jabil Circuit's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Jabil. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Investor biases related to Jabil Circuit's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Jabil. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Jabil can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Jabil Circuit. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Jabil Circuit's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Jabil Circuit's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Jabil Circuit's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Jabil Circuit.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Jabil Circuit in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Jabil Circuit's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Jabil Circuit options trading.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Jabil Circuit using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jabil Circuit to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Jabil Circuit information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jabil Circuit's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Complementary Tools for Jabil Stock analysis

When running Jabil Circuit price analysis, check to measure Jabil Circuit's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jabil Circuit is operating at the current time. Most of Jabil Circuit's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jabil Circuit's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jabil Circuit's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jabil Circuit to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Jabil Circuit's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jabil Circuit. If investors know Jabil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jabil Circuit listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.007

Dividend Share

0.32

Earnings Share

6.89

Revenue Per Share

257.529

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.077

The market value of Jabil Circuit is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jabil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jabil Circuit's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jabil Circuit's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jabil Circuit's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jabil Circuit's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Jabil Circuit's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jabil Circuit value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jabil Circuit's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Jabil Option Contracts

Jabil Circuit Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Jabil Circuit Stock Forecast Pattern

Jabil Circuit Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for Jabil Circuit

Other Forecasting Options for Jabil Circuit

Jabil Circuit Related Equities

Jabil Circuit Technical and Predictive Analytics

Jabil Circuit Risk Indicators

Jabil Circuit Investors Sentiment

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Complementary Tools for Jabil Stock analysis

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