Johnson Johnson Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JNJ Stock  USD 162.12  0.74  0.46%   
Johnson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Johnson Johnson stock prices and determine the direction of Johnson Johnson's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Johnson Johnson historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Johnson Johnson naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Johnson Johnson systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Johnson Johnson fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Johnson to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Johnson Stock please use our How to buy in Johnson Stock guide.
  
At this time, Johnson Johnson's Receivables Turnover is relatively stable as compared to the past year. Inventory Turnover is expected to hike to 2.92 this year, although the value of Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 0.46. . The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to pull down to about 2.5 B. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to pull down to about 2.5 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-08 Johnson Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Johnson Johnson's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Johnson Johnson's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Johnson Johnson stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Johnson Johnson's open interest, investors have to compare it to Johnson Johnson's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Johnson Johnson is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Johnson. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Johnson Johnson cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Johnson Johnson's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Johnson Johnson's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Johnson Johnson is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Johnson Johnson value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Johnson Johnson Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Johnson Johnson on the next trading day is expected to be 163.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Johnson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Johnson Johnson Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Johnson JohnsonJohnson Johnson Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Johnson Johnson Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Johnson Johnson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Johnson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 163.01 and 164.44, respectively. We have considered Johnson Johnson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
162.12
163.01
Downside
163.72
Expected Value
164.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Johnson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Johnson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2414
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8801
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0056
SAESum of the absolute errors53.6851
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Johnson Johnson. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Johnson Johnson. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Johnson Johnson

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Johnson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Johnson's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Johnson Johnson in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
161.37162.08162.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
150.80151.51178.33
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
153.30168.46186.99
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.442.632.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Johnson Johnson. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Johnson Johnson's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Johnson Johnson's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Johnson Johnson.

Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Johnson

For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Johnson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Johnson's price trends.

Johnson Johnson Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Johnson stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Johnson could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Johnson by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
VaxxinityYS Biopharma23Andme HoldingAgilent TechnologiesDermTechValneva SE ADRVivani MedicalEquilliumKineta IncDiaMedica TherapeuticsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Johnson Johnson Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Johnson's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Johnson's current price.

Johnson Johnson Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Johnson stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Johnson shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Johnson stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Johnson entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Johnson Johnson Risk Indicators

The analysis of Johnson Johnson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Johnson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Johnson Johnson stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Johnson Johnson is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Johnson Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Johnson Johnson Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Johnson Johnson Stock:

Complementary Tools for Johnson Stock analysis

When running Johnson Johnson's price analysis, check to measure Johnson Johnson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Johnson is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Johnson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Johnson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Johnson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Johnson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Johnson Johnson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Johnson Johnson. If investors know Johnson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Johnson Johnson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.106
Dividend Share
4.7
Earnings Share
5.2
Revenue Per Share
33.613
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.073
The market value of Johnson Johnson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Johnson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Johnson Johnson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Johnson Johnson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Johnson Johnson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Johnson Johnson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Johnson Johnson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Johnson Johnson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Johnson Johnson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.