Junior Gold Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

JNUG -  USA Etf  

USD 57.70  0.01  0.0173%

Junior Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Junior Gold historical stock prices and determine the direction of Junior Gold Mine's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Junior Gold historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Junior Gold to cross-verify your projections.

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Open Interest Agains t 2021-10-01 Junior Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Junior Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Junior Gold's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Junior Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Junior Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Junior Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Junior Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Junior. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Junior Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Junior Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Junior Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Junior Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Junior Gold Mine value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Junior Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Junior Gold Mine on the next trading day is expected to be 51.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.75, mean absolute percentage error of 11.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.96. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Junior Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Junior Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Junior Gold Etf Forecast Pattern

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Junior Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Junior Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Junior Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.79 and 55.60, respectively. We have considered Junior Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.70
26th of September 2021
51.70
Expected Value
55.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Junior Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Junior Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5153
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.7534
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0397
SAESum of the absolute errors167.9567
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Junior Gold Mine. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Junior Gold. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Junior Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Junior Gold Mine. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Junior Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Junior Gold in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
53.8057.7061.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.9455.8459.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
54.1969.4484.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Junior Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Junior Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Junior Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Junior Gold Mine.

Other Forecasting Options for Junior Gold

For every potential investor in Junior, whether a beginner or expert, Junior Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Junior Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Junior. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Junior Gold's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Junior Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Junior Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Junior Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Junior Gold Mine Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Junior Gold's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Junior Gold's current price.

Junior Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Junior Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Junior Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Junior Gold stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Junior Gold without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Junior Gold to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Junior Gold Mine information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Junior Gold's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

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When running Junior Gold Mine price analysis, check to measure Junior Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Junior Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Junior Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Junior Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Junior Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Junior Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Junior Gold Mine is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Junior that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Junior Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Junior Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Junior Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Junior Gold Mine underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Junior Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Junior Gold value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Junior Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.