Joann Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

JOAN -  USA Stock  

USD 11.08  0.21  1.86%

Joann Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Joann historical stock prices and determine the direction of Joann Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Joann historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Joann naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Joann Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Joann fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joann to cross-verify your projections.

Joann Stock Forecast 

 
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Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 1.27 this year. Joann Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 38.56 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 39.3 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (647.4 K).

Open Interest Agains t 2021-11-19 Joann Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Joann's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Joann's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Joann stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Joann's open interest, investors have to compare it to Joann's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Joann is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Joann. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Joann cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Joann's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Joann's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Joann polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Joann Inc as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Joann Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Joann Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.41. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Joann Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Joann's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Joann Stock Forecast Pattern

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Joann Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Joann's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Joann's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.41 and 13.13, respectively. We have considered Joann's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.08
24th of October 2021
9.27
Expected Value
13.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Joann stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Joann stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria298.3105
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8265
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.067
SAESum of the absolute errors131.4068
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Joann historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Joann

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Joann Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Joann's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Joann in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.5311.0413.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.6513.1615.67
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0016.1424.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.531.531.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Joann. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Joann's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Joann's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Joann Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Joann

For every potential investor in Joann, whether a beginner or expert, Joann's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Joann Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Joann. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Joann's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Joann stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Joann could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Joann by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Joann Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Joann's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Joann's current price.

Joann Risk Indicators

The analysis of Joann's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Joann's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Joann stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Joann Investors Sentiment

The influence of Joann's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Joann. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - JOAN

Joann Inc Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Joann Inc. What is your judgment towards investing in Joann Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joann to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Joann Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Joann's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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When running Joann Inc price analysis, check to measure Joann's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Joann is operating at the current time. Most of Joann's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Joann's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Joann's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Joann to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Joann Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Joann that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Joann's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Joann's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Joann's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Joann Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Joann's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Joann value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Joann's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.