Joann Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

JOAN Stock  USD 0.1  0.01  11.91%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Joann Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.1 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.02  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33. Joann Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Joann stock prices and determine the direction of Joann Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Joann's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Joann's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Joann's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Joann fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joann to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Joann's Fixed Asset Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.17, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.59. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 44.8 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (171.5 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Joann Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Joann's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Joann's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Joann stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Joann's open interest, investors have to compare it to Joann's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Joann is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Joann. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Joann cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Joann's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Joann's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Joann simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Joann Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Joann Inc prices get older.

Joann Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Joann Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Joann Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Joann's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Joann Stock Forecast Pattern

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Joann Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Joann's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Joann's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.001 and 9.80, respectively. We have considered Joann's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.1
0.1
Expected Value
9.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Joann stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Joann stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6024
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0058
MADMean absolute deviation0.0219
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0722
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3331
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Joann Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Joann observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Joann

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Joann Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Joann's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.129.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.4210.13
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.261.381.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Joann. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Joann's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Joann's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Joann Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Joann

For every potential investor in Joann, whether a beginner or expert, Joann's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Joann Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Joann. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Joann's price trends.

Joann Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Joann stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Joann could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Joann by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Joann Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Joann's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Joann's current price.

Joann Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Joann stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Joann shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Joann stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Joann Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Joann Risk Indicators

The analysis of Joann's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Joann's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting joann stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Joann in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Joann's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Joann options trading.

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When determining whether Joann Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Joann's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Joann Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Joann Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joann to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Joann Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Joann's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Joann's price analysis, check to measure Joann's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Joann is operating at the current time. Most of Joann's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Joann's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Joann's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Joann to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Joann's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Joann. If investors know Joann will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Joann listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.69)
Earnings Share
(5.81)
Revenue Per Share
52.125
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
Return On Assets
(0.03)
The market value of Joann Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Joann that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Joann's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Joann's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Joann's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Joann's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Joann's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Joann is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Joann's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.