Joby Aviation Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JOBY Stock | USD 4.88 0.01 0.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Joby Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 4.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94. Joby Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Joby Aviation stock prices and determine the direction of Joby Aviation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Joby Aviation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Joby Aviation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Joby Aviation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Joby Aviation fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joby Aviation to cross-verify your projections. Joby |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Joby Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Joby Aviation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Joby Aviation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Joby Aviation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Joby Aviation's open interest, investors have to compare it to Joby Aviation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Joby Aviation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Joby. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Joby Aviation cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Joby Aviation's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Joby Aviation's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Joby Aviation is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Joby Aviation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Joby Aviation Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Joby Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 4.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Joby Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Joby Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Joby Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Joby Aviation | Joby Aviation Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Joby Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Joby Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Joby Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.52 and 8.07, respectively. We have considered Joby Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Joby Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Joby Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9722 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.163 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0296 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9436 |
Predictive Modules for Joby Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Joby Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Joby Aviation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Joby Aviation
For every potential investor in Joby, whether a beginner or expert, Joby Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Joby Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Joby. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Joby Aviation's price trends.Joby Aviation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Joby Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Joby Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Joby Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Joby Aviation Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Joby Aviation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Joby Aviation's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Joby Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Joby Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Joby Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Joby Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Joby Aviation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Joby Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Joby Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Joby Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting joby stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Variance | 10.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Joby Aviation Investors Sentiment
The influence of Joby Aviation's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Joby. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Joby Aviation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Joby. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Joby can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Joby Aviation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Joby Aviation's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Joby Aviation's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Joby Aviation's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Joby Aviation.
Joby Aviation Implied Volatility | 106.17 |
Joby Aviation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Joby Aviation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Joby Aviation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Joby Aviation stock will not fluctuate a lot when Joby Aviation's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Joby Aviation in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Joby Aviation's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Joby Aviation options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Joby Aviation to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Joby Stock please use our How to Invest in Joby Aviation guide.Note that the Joby Aviation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Joby Aviation's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Joby Stock analysis
When running Joby Aviation's price analysis, check to measure Joby Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Joby Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Joby Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Joby Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Joby Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Joby Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Joby Aviation's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Joby Aviation. If investors know Joby will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Joby Aviation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.79) | Revenue Per Share 0.002 | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (0.47) |
The market value of Joby Aviation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Joby that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Joby Aviation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Joby Aviation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Joby Aviation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Joby Aviation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Joby Aviation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Joby Aviation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Joby Aviation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.