Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

JOUT Stock  USD 59.08  1.96  3.21%   
Johnson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Johnson Outdoors historical stock prices and determine the direction of Johnson Outdoors's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Johnson Outdoors historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Johnson Outdoors naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Johnson Outdoors systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Johnson Outdoors fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Johnson Stock please use our How to Invest in Johnson Outdoors guide.
Johnson Outdoors PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Johnson Outdoors reported PPandE Turnover of 10.67 in 2022. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.64 in 2023, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to drop 14.76 in 2023. . Johnson Outdoors Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Johnson Outdoors reported Weighted Average Shares of 11.64 Million in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 11.8 M in 2023, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (171.9 K) in 2023.
Most investors in Johnson Outdoors cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Johnson Outdoors' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Johnson Outdoors' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Johnson Outdoors polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Johnson Outdoors as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Johnson Outdoors Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 60.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Outdoors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Johnson Outdoors Stock Forecast Pattern

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Johnson Outdoors Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Johnson Outdoors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Johnson Outdoors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.71 and 61.88, respectively. We have considered Johnson Outdoors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 59.08
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Outdoors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Outdoors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria38.7035
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6815
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors12.2665
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Johnson Outdoors historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Johnson Outdoors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Johnson Outdoors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Johnson Outdoors' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Johnson Outdoors in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Johnson Outdoors. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Johnson Outdoors' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Johnson Outdoors' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Johnson Outdoors.

Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Outdoors

For every potential investor in Johnson, whether a beginner or expert, Johnson Outdoors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Johnson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Johnson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Johnson Outdoors' price trends.

Johnson Outdoors Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Johnson Outdoors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Johnson Outdoors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Johnson Outdoors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vista OutdoorExxon Mobil CorpIntelDupont De NemoursInternational BusinessHome DepotJohnson JohnsonAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Johnson Outdoors Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Johnson Outdoors' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Johnson Outdoors' current price.

Johnson Outdoors Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Johnson Outdoors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Johnson Outdoors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Johnson Outdoors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Johnson Outdoors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Johnson Outdoors Risk Indicators

The analysis of Johnson Outdoors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Johnson Outdoors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Johnson Outdoors stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Johnson Outdoors Investors Sentiment

The influence of Johnson Outdoors' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Johnson. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Johnson Outdoors' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Johnson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Johnson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Johnson Outdoors. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Johnson Outdoors' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Johnson Outdoors' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Johnson Outdoors' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Johnson Outdoors.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Johnson Outdoors in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Johnson Outdoors' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Johnson Outdoors options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Johnson Stock please use our How to Invest in Johnson Outdoors guide. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running Johnson Outdoors price analysis, check to measure Johnson Outdoors' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Johnson Outdoors is operating at the current time. Most of Johnson Outdoors' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Johnson Outdoors' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Johnson Outdoors' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Johnson Outdoors to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Johnson Outdoors' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Johnson Outdoors. If investors know Johnson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Johnson Outdoors listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Dividend Share
Earnings Share
Revenue Per Share
Quarterly Revenue Growth
The market value of Johnson Outdoors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Johnson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Johnson Outdoors' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Johnson Outdoors' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Johnson Outdoors' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Johnson Outdoors' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Johnson Outdoors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Johnson Outdoors value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Johnson Outdoors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.