JPMorgan Chase Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

JPM Stock  USD 192.66  2.36  1.24%   
JPMorgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JPMorgan Chase stock prices and determine the direction of JPMorgan Chase Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JPMorgan Chase historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although JPMorgan Chase naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of JPMorgan Chase Co systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JPMorgan Chase fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPMorgan Chase to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 19th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.05, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 4.48. . As of the 19th of March 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 43.3 B, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 2.5 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-22 JPMorgan Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JPMorgan Chase's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest JPMorgan Chase's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies JPMorgan Chase stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JPMorgan Chase's open interest, investors have to compare it to JPMorgan Chase's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JPMorgan Chase is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JPMorgan. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JPMorgan Chase cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JPMorgan Chase's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JPMorgan Chase's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for JPMorgan Chase is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JPMorgan Chase Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JPMorgan Chase Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JPMorgan Chase Co on the next trading day is expected to be 192.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JPMorgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JPMorgan Chase's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JPMorgan Chase Stock Forecast Pattern

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JPMorgan Chase Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JPMorgan Chase's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JPMorgan Chase's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 191.45 and 192.99, respectively. We have considered JPMorgan Chase's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
192.66
191.45
Downside
192.22
Expected Value
192.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JPMorgan Chase stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JPMorgan Chase stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6402
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.119
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors69.3794
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JPMorgan Chase Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JPMorgan Chase. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JPMorgan Chase

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPMorgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JPMorgan Chase's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JPMorgan Chase in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
192.09192.87193.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
189.53190.31211.93
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
146.71161.22178.95
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.614.284.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JPMorgan Chase. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JPMorgan Chase's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JPMorgan Chase's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in JPMorgan Chase.

Other Forecasting Options for JPMorgan Chase

For every potential investor in JPMorgan, whether a beginner or expert, JPMorgan Chase's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JPMorgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JPMorgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JPMorgan Chase's price trends.

JPMorgan Chase Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JPMorgan Chase stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JPMorgan Chase could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JPMorgan Chase by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Progressive CorpComfort Systems USAJPMorgan ChaseJPMorgan ChaseBank Of AmericaTat TechnoAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome Depot
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JPMorgan Chase Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JPMorgan Chase's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JPMorgan Chase's current price.

JPMorgan Chase Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JPMorgan Chase stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JPMorgan Chase shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JPMorgan Chase stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JPMorgan Chase Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JPMorgan Chase Risk Indicators

The analysis of JPMorgan Chase's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JPMorgan Chase's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JPMorgan Chase stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether JPMorgan Chase is a strong investment it is important to analyze JPMorgan Chase's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact JPMorgan Chase's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding JPMorgan Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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Is JPMorgan Chase's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JPMorgan Chase. If investors know JPMorgan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JPMorgan Chase listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Dividend Share
4.1
Earnings Share
16.22
Revenue Per Share
49.687
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.111
The market value of JPMorgan Chase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JPMorgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JPMorgan Chase's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JPMorgan Chase's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JPMorgan Chase's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JPMorgan Chase's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JPMorgan Chase's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if JPMorgan Chase is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JPMorgan Chase's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.