JP Morgan Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

JPM -  USA Stock  

USD 150.64  0.29  0.19%

JP Morgan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JP Morgan historical stock prices and determine the direction of JP Morgan Chase's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JP Morgan historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although JP Morgan naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of JP Morgan Chase systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JP Morgan fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JP Morgan to cross-verify your projections.

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JP Morgan PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 6.90. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to hike to 0.50 this year, although the value of Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 0.0366. . JP Morgan Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 3.15 Billion. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 3.2 B this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (7 B).
Most investors in JP Morgan cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JP Morgan's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JP Morgan's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for JP Morgan works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

JP Morgan Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of JP Morgan Chase on the next trading day is expected to be 150.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.69. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JP Morgan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JP Morgan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JP Morgan Stock Forecast Pattern

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JP Morgan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JP Morgan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JP Morgan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 149.04 and 151.70, respectively. We have considered JP Morgan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
150.64
24th of July 2021
149.04
Downside
150.37
Expected Value
151.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JP Morgan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JP Morgan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2301
MADMean absolute deviation1.7743
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors104.6853
When JP Morgan Chase prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any JP Morgan Chase trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent JP Morgan observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for JP Morgan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JP Morgan Chase. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JP Morgan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JP Morgan in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
149.29150.63151.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
135.58159.58160.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
146.24157.44168.64
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
135.00165.50200.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JP Morgan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JP Morgan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JP Morgan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JP Morgan Chase.

Other Forecasting Options for JP Morgan

For every potential investor in JP Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, JP Morgan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JP Morgan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JP Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JP Morgan's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JP Morgan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JP Morgan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JP Morgan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

JP Morgan Chase Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JP Morgan's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JP Morgan's current price.

JP Morgan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JP Morgan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JP Morgan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JP Morgan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JP Morgan Chase entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JP Morgan Risk Indicators

The analysis of JP Morgan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JP Morgan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JP Morgan stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

JP Morgan Investors Sentiment

The influence of JP Morgan's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in JP Morgan. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - JPM

JP Morgan Chase Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on JP Morgan Chase. What is your judgment towards investing in JP Morgan Chase? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JP Morgan to cross-verify your projections. Note that the JP Morgan Chase information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other JP Morgan's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running JP Morgan Chase price analysis, check to measure JP Morgan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JP Morgan is operating at the current time. Most of JP Morgan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JP Morgan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JP Morgan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JP Morgan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of JP Morgan Chase is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JP Morgan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JP Morgan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JP Morgan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JP Morgan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JP Morgan Chase underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JP Morgan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JP Morgan value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JP Morgan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.