JPM Ultra-Short Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

JPST -  USA Etf  

USD 50.66  0.01  0.0197%

JPM Ultra-Short Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JPM Ultra-Short historical stock prices and determine the direction of JPM Ultra-Short Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JPM Ultra-Short historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPM Ultra-Short to cross-verify your projections.

JPM Ultra-Short Etf Forecast 

 
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Open Interest Agains t 2021-11-19 JPM Ultra-Short Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JPM Ultra-Short's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest JPM Ultra-Short's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies JPM Ultra-Short stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JPM Ultra-Short's open interest, investors have to compare it to JPM Ultra-Short's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JPM Ultra-Short is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JPM Ultra-Short. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JPM Ultra-Short cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JPM Ultra-Short's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JPM Ultra-Short's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for JPM Ultra-Short is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JPM Ultra-Short Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JPM Ultra-Short Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of October 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JPM Ultra-Short Income on the next trading day is expected to be 50.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.007265, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00009826, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.44. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JPM Ultra-Short Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JPM Ultra-Short's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JPM Ultra-Short Etf Forecast Pattern

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JPM Ultra-Short Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JPM Ultra-Short's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JPM Ultra-Short's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.62 and 50.67, respectively. We have considered JPM Ultra-Short's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.66
17th of October 2021
50.65
Expected Value
50.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JPM Ultra-Short etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JPM Ultra-Short etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.8827
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0073
MAPEMean absolute percentage error1.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.4432
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JPM Ultra-Short Income. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JPM Ultra-Short. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JPM Ultra-Short

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JPM Ultra-Short Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JPM Ultra-Short's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JPM Ultra-Short in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
50.6350.6550.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
50.6450.6650.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
50.6450.6950.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JPM Ultra-Short. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JPM Ultra-Short's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JPM Ultra-Short's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JPM Ultra-Short Income.

Other Forecasting Options for JPM Ultra-Short

For every potential investor in JPM Ultra-Short, whether a beginner or expert, JPM Ultra-Short's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JPM Ultra-Short Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JPM Ultra-Short. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JPM Ultra-Short's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JPM Ultra-Short etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JPM Ultra-Short could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JPM Ultra-Short by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

JPM Ultra-Short Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JPM Ultra-Short's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JPM Ultra-Short's current price.

JPM Ultra-Short Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JPM Ultra-Short etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JPM Ultra-Short shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JPM Ultra-Short etf market strength indicators, traders can identify JPM Ultra-Short Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JPM Ultra-Short Risk Indicators

The analysis of JPM Ultra-Short's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JPM Ultra-Short's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JPM Ultra-Short stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

JPM Ultra-Short Investors Sentiment

The influence of JPM Ultra-Short's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in JPM Ultra-Short. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - JPST

JPM Ultra-Short Income Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in JPM Ultra-Short Income. What is your judgment towards investing in JPM Ultra-Short Income? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPM Ultra-Short to cross-verify your projections. Note that the JPM Ultra-Short Income information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other JPM Ultra-Short's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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The market value of JPM Ultra-Short Income is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JPM Ultra-Short that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JPM Ultra-Short's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JPM Ultra-Short's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JPM Ultra-Short's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JPM Ultra-Short Income underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JPM Ultra-Short's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JPM Ultra-Short value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JPM Ultra-Short's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.