James River Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

JRVR Stock  USD 9.30  0.06  0.65%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of James River Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.83 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.65  and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.59. James Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast James River stock prices and determine the direction of James River Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of James River's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although James River's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of James River's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of James River fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of James River to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 03/29/2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to -0.06. In addition to that, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 1.16. As of 03/29/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 34.7 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 17.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 James Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast James River's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in James River's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for James River stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current James River's open interest, investors have to compare it to James River's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of James River is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in James. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in James River cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the James River's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets James River's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
James River polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for James River Group as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

James River Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of James River Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict James Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that James River's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

James River Stock Forecast Pattern

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James River Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting James River's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. James River's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.41 and 12.24, respectively. We have considered James River's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.30
7.83
Expected Value
12.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of James River stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent James River stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5357
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6547
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.075
SAESum of the absolute errors40.5932
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the James River historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for James River

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as James River Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of James River's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.929.3013.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.217.5911.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
6.598.8211.05
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
22.7525.0027.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as James River. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against James River's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, James River's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in James River Group.

Other Forecasting Options for James River

For every potential investor in James, whether a beginner or expert, James River's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. James Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in James. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying James River's price trends.

James River Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with James River stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of James River could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing James River by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

James River Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of James River's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of James River's current price.

James River Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how James River stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading James River shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying James River stock market strength indicators, traders can identify James River Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

James River Risk Indicators

The analysis of James River's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in James River's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting james stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether James River Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze James River's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact James River's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding James Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of James River to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.

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When running James River's price analysis, check to measure James River's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy James River is operating at the current time. Most of James River's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of James River's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move James River's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of James River to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is James River's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of James River. If investors know James will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about James River listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.19
Dividend Share
0.2
Earnings Share
1.34
Revenue Per Share
21.527
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of James River Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of James that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of James River's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is James River's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because James River's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect James River's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between James River's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if James River is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, James River's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.