ETF Series Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

JUCY Etf

USD 24.96 0.21 0.83%

ETF Series Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ETF Series historical stock prices and determine the direction of ETF Series Solutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ETF Series historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Check out fundamental analysis of ETF Series to check your projections. For more information on how to buy ETF Series Etf please use our How to Invest in ETF Series guide.

Most investors in ETF Series cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ETF Series' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ETF Series' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for ETF Series is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ETF Series Solutions value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

More About Naive Prediction All Equity Analysis

ETF Series Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ETF Series Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 25.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.041068, mean absolute percentage error of 0.003254, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.55.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ETF Series Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ETF Series' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ETF Series Etf Forecast Pattern

ETF Series Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ETF Series' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ETF Series' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.87 and 25.35, respectively. We have considered ETF Series' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 24.96

24.87

Downside

25.11

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

25.35

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ETF Series etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ETF Series etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	114.2205
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.0411
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0017
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	2.5462

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ETF Series Solutions. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ETF Series. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ETF Series

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ETF Series Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ETF Series' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ETF Series in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
24.72	24.96	25.20

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
22.69	22.93	27.46

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ETF Series. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ETF Series' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ETF Series' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ETF Series Solutions.

Other Forecasting Options for ETF Series

For every potential investor in ETF Series, whether a beginner or expert, ETF Series' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ETF Series Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ETF Series. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ETF Series' price trends.

ETF Series Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ETF Series etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ETF Series could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ETF Series by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

IShares Core SPChevron CorpOrea Mining CorpEvoqua Water TechnologiesAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel

Risk & Return

Correlation

ETF Series Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ETF Series' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ETF Series' current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

ETF Series Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ETF Series etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ETF Series shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ETF Series etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ETF Series Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

	Accumulation Distribution	131.87
	Daily Balance Of Power	(5.25)
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.99
	Day Median Price	24.96
	Day Typical Price	24.96
	Price Action Indicator	(0.11)

ETF Series Risk Indicators

The analysis of ETF Series' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ETF Series' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ETF Series stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	0.1282
	Standard Deviation	0.1792
	Variance	0.0321
	Downside Variance	0.0384
	Semi Variance	(0.003994)
	Expected Short fall	(0.16)

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ETF Series in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ETF Series' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ETF Series options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as ETF Series Solutions using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Check out fundamental analysis of ETF Series to check your projections. For more information on how to buy ETF Series Etf please use our How to Invest in ETF Series guide. Note that the ETF Series Solutions information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ETF Series' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for ETF Series Etf analysis

When running ETF Series Solutions price analysis, check to measure ETF Series' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ETF Series is operating at the current time. Most of ETF Series' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ETF Series' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ETF Series' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ETF Series to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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The market value of ETF Series Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ETF Series that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ETF Series' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ETF Series' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ETF Series' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ETF Series' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between ETF Series' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ETF Series value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ETF Series' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Macroaxis helps investors of all levels and skills to maximize the upside of all their holdings and minimize the risk associated with market volatility, economic swings, and company-specific events. View terms and conditions

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average