KeyCorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KEY Stock | USD 14.43 0.18 1.23% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.81. KeyCorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KeyCorp stock prices and determine the direction of KeyCorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KeyCorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although KeyCorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of KeyCorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of KeyCorp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KeyCorp to cross-verify your projections. KeyCorp |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 KeyCorp Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast KeyCorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in KeyCorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for KeyCorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current KeyCorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to KeyCorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of KeyCorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in KeyCorp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in KeyCorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KeyCorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KeyCorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for KeyCorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of KeyCorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. KeyCorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KeyCorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KeyCorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KeyCorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KeyCorp | KeyCorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
KeyCorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KeyCorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KeyCorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.30 and 16.37, respectively. We have considered KeyCorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KeyCorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KeyCorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.6267 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2263 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0156 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.8056 |
Predictive Modules for KeyCorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KeyCorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KeyCorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for KeyCorp
For every potential investor in KeyCorp, whether a beginner or expert, KeyCorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KeyCorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KeyCorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KeyCorp's price trends.KeyCorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KeyCorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KeyCorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KeyCorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KeyCorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KeyCorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KeyCorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KeyCorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KeyCorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KeyCorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KeyCorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KeyCorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KeyCorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of KeyCorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KeyCorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting keycorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
KeyCorp Investors Sentiment
The influence of KeyCorp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in KeyCorp. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to KeyCorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in KeyCorp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding KeyCorp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around KeyCorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
KeyCorp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for KeyCorp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average KeyCorp's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on KeyCorp.
KeyCorp Implied Volatility | 86.47 |
KeyCorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of KeyCorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if KeyCorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that KeyCorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when KeyCorp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KeyCorp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KeyCorp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KeyCorp options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KeyCorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy KeyCorp Stock please use our How to Invest in KeyCorp guide.Note that the KeyCorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KeyCorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for KeyCorp Stock analysis
When running KeyCorp's price analysis, check to measure KeyCorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KeyCorp is operating at the current time. Most of KeyCorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KeyCorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KeyCorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KeyCorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies |
Is KeyCorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KeyCorp. If investors know KeyCorp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KeyCorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.92) | Dividend Share 0.82 | Earnings Share 0.88 | Revenue Per Share 6.357 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of KeyCorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KeyCorp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KeyCorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KeyCorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KeyCorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KeyCorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KeyCorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KeyCorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KeyCorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.