Kirklands Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

KIRK Stock  USD 2.36  0.03  1.26%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kirklands on the next trading day is expected to be 2.34 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.11. Kirklands Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kirklands stock prices and determine the direction of Kirklands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kirklands' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kirklands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kirklands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kirklands fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kirklands to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Kirklands Stock please use our How to buy in Kirklands Stock guide.
  
At this time, Kirklands' Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 12.73 this year, although the value of Fixed Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 2.85. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 13.5 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 20.8 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Kirklands Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kirklands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kirklands' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kirklands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kirklands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Kirklands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kirklands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kirklands. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kirklands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kirklands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kirklands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Kirklands works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Kirklands Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kirklands on the next trading day is expected to be 2.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kirklands Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kirklands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kirklands Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest KirklandsKirklands Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kirklands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kirklands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kirklands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.39, respectively. We have considered Kirklands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.36
2.34
Expected Value
6.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kirklands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kirklands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.019
MADMean absolute deviation0.0852
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0301
SAESum of the absolute errors5.1133
When Kirklands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Kirklands trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Kirklands observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Kirklands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kirklands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kirklands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.356.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.826.88
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.874.254.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kirklands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kirklands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kirklands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kirklands.

Other Forecasting Options for Kirklands

For every potential investor in Kirklands, whether a beginner or expert, Kirklands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kirklands Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kirklands. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kirklands' price trends.

Kirklands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kirklands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kirklands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kirklands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kirklands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kirklands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kirklands' current price.

Kirklands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kirklands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kirklands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kirklands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kirklands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kirklands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kirklands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kirklands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kirklands stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Kirklands in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Kirklands' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Kirklands options trading.

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When determining whether Kirklands is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Kirklands Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Kirklands Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Kirklands Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kirklands to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Kirklands Stock please use our How to buy in Kirklands Stock guide.
You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Kirklands' price analysis, check to measure Kirklands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kirklands is operating at the current time. Most of Kirklands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kirklands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kirklands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kirklands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kirklands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kirklands. If investors know Kirklands will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kirklands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.34)
Earnings Share
(3.25)
Revenue Per Share
36.414
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
Return On Assets
(0.05)
The market value of Kirklands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kirklands that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kirklands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kirklands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kirklands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kirklands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kirklands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kirklands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kirklands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.