Kaleido Biosciences Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KLDO -  USA Stock  

USD 5.38  0.09  1.65%

Kaleido Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kaleido Biosciences historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kaleido Biosciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kaleido Biosciences historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kaleido Biosciences naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Kaleido Biosciences systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kaleido Biosciences fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaleido Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.

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The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 0.0125. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to slide to about 27.6 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to slide to about 27.6 M.
Most investors in Kaleido Biosciences cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kaleido Biosciences' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kaleido Biosciences' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Kaleido Biosciences is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kaleido Biosciences value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Kaleido Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of September 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kaleido Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 4.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.031617, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.29. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kaleido Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kaleido Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kaleido Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern

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Kaleido Biosciences Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kaleido Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kaleido Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.87 and 8.07, respectively. We have considered Kaleido Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.38
16th of September 2021
4.97
Expected Value
8.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kaleido Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kaleido Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria33.7898
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1345
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0224
SAESum of the absolute errors2.286
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Kaleido Biosciences. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Kaleido Biosciences. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Kaleido Biosciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaleido Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaleido Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kaleido Biosciences in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.445.548.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
4.347.4410.54
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
5.0014.6022.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.63-2.31-2
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kaleido Biosciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kaleido Biosciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kaleido Biosciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kaleido Biosciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Kaleido Biosciences

For every potential investor in Kaleido, whether a beginner or expert, Kaleido Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kaleido Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kaleido. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kaleido Biosciences' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kaleido Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kaleido Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kaleido Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Kaleido Biosciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kaleido Biosciences' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kaleido Biosciences' current price.

Kaleido Biosciences Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kaleido Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kaleido Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kaleido Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kaleido Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kaleido Biosciences Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kaleido Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kaleido Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kaleido Biosciences stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Kaleido Biosciences Investors Sentiment

The influence of Kaleido Biosciences' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Kaleido. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - KLDO

Kaleido Biosciences Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their trading attitude regarding investing in Kaleido Biosciences. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Kaleido Biosciences? Are you bullish or bearish?
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50% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaleido Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Kaleido Biosciences information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kaleido Biosciences' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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The market value of Kaleido Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaleido that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaleido Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaleido Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaleido Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaleido Biosciences underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaleido Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kaleido Biosciences value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaleido Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.