Kaleido Biosciences Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

KLDO -  USA Stock  

USD 5.78  0.11  1.94%

Kaleido Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kaleido Biosciences historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kaleido Biosciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kaleido Biosciences historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kaleido Biosciences naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Kaleido Biosciences systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kaleido Biosciences fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaleido Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.

Search Stock Forecast 

 
Refresh
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 0.0125. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to slide to about 27.6 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to slide to about 27.6 M.
Most investors in Kaleido Biosciences cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kaleido Biosciences' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kaleido Biosciences' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Kaleido Biosciences - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Kaleido Biosciences prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Kaleido Biosciences price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Kaleido Biosciences.

Kaleido Biosciences Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kaleido Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 5.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.95. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kaleido Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kaleido Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kaleido Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Kaleido BiosciencesKaleido Biosciences Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Kaleido Biosciences Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kaleido Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kaleido Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.25 and 11.27, respectively. We have considered Kaleido Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.78
4th of August 2021
5.76
Expected Value
11.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kaleido Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kaleido Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0644
MADMean absolute deviation0.3211
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0474
SAESum of the absolute errors18.9476
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Kaleido Biosciences observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Kaleido Biosciences observations.

Predictive Modules for Kaleido Biosciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaleido Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaleido Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kaleido Biosciences in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.355.8611.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.367.8713.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.376.878.37
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
5.0014.6022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kaleido Biosciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kaleido Biosciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kaleido Biosciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kaleido Biosciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Kaleido Biosciences

For every potential investor in Kaleido, whether a beginner or expert, Kaleido Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kaleido Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kaleido. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kaleido Biosciences' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kaleido Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kaleido Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kaleido Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Kaleido Biosciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kaleido Biosciences' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kaleido Biosciences' current price.

Kaleido Biosciences Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kaleido Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kaleido Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kaleido Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kaleido Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kaleido Biosciences Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kaleido Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kaleido Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kaleido Biosciences stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Kaleido Biosciences Investors Sentiment

The influence of Kaleido Biosciences' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Kaleido. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - KLDO

Kaleido Biosciences Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their trading attitude regarding investing in Kaleido Biosciences. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Kaleido Biosciences? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
Skip

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Kaleido Biosciences using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaleido Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Kaleido Biosciences information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kaleido Biosciences' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Kaleido Stock analysis

When running Kaleido Biosciences price analysis, check to measure Kaleido Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kaleido Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Kaleido Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kaleido Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kaleido Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kaleido Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Equity Search
Search for activelly traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Go
Fund Screener
Find activelly-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
The market value of Kaleido Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaleido that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaleido Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaleido Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaleido Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaleido Biosciences underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaleido Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kaleido Biosciences value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaleido Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.