Kempharm Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

KMPH -  USA Stock  

USD 10.75  0.24  2.18%

Kempharm Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kempharm historical stock prices and determine the direction of Kempharm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Kempharm historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kempharm naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Kempharm systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kempharm fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kempharm to cross-verify your projections.

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The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 1.26. Kempharm Weighted Average Shares is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 3.98 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 4.3 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 22.8 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 Kempharm Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kempharm's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Kempharm's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Kempharm stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kempharm's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kempharm's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kempharm is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kempharm. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kempharm cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kempharm's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kempharm's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Kempharm price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Kempharm Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Kempharm on the next trading day is expected to be 13.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 2.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.48. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kempharm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kempharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kempharm Stock Forecast Pattern

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Kempharm Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kempharm's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kempharm's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.61 and 16.82, respectively. We have considered Kempharm's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.75
29th of July 2021
13.22
Expected Value
16.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kempharm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kempharm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.9347
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3948
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1189
SAESum of the absolute errors86.4758
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Kempharm historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Kempharm

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kempharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kempharm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Kempharm in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.1010.6814.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.5213.1016.68
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0019.0028.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.610.620.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kempharm. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kempharm's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kempharm's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Kempharm.

Other Forecasting Options for Kempharm

For every potential investor in Kempharm, whether a beginner or expert, Kempharm's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kempharm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kempharm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kempharm's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kempharm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kempharm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kempharm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Kempharm Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kempharm's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kempharm's current price.

Kempharm Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kempharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kempharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Kempharm stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Kempharm Investors Sentiment

The influence of Kempharm's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Kempharm. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - KMPH

Kempharm Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Kempharm. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Kempharm? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kempharm to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Kempharm information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kempharm's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.

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When running Kempharm price analysis, check to measure Kempharm's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kempharm is operating at the current time. Most of Kempharm's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kempharm's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kempharm's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kempharm to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Kempharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kempharm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kempharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kempharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kempharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kempharm underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kempharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Kempharm value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kempharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.