Lithium Americas Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LAC Stock | USD 4.68 0.07 1.47% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lithium Americas Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 4.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.75. Lithium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lithium Americas stock prices and determine the direction of Lithium Americas Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lithium Americas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Lithium Americas' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lithium Americas' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lithium Americas fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithium Americas to cross-verify your projections. Lithium |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Lithium Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lithium Americas' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lithium Americas' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lithium Americas stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lithium Americas' open interest, investors have to compare it to Lithium Americas' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lithium Americas is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lithium. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Lithium Americas cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lithium Americas' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lithium Americas' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Lithium Americas works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Lithium Americas Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lithium Americas Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 4.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lithium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lithium Americas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lithium Americas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lithium Americas | Lithium Americas Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lithium Americas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lithium Americas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lithium Americas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 10.87, respectively. We have considered Lithium Americas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lithium Americas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lithium Americas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0591 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.25 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0472 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7498 |
Predictive Modules for Lithium Americas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lithium Americas Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lithium Americas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lithium Americas
For every potential investor in Lithium, whether a beginner or expert, Lithium Americas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lithium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lithium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lithium Americas' price trends.Lithium Americas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lithium Americas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lithium Americas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lithium Americas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lithium Americas Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lithium Americas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lithium Americas' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lithium Americas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lithium Americas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lithium Americas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lithium Americas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lithium Americas Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 147625.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.54) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) |
Lithium Americas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lithium Americas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lithium Americas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lithium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.17 | |||
| Variance | 38.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 53.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 51.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Lithium Americas Investors Sentiment
The influence of Lithium Americas' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Lithium. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Lithium Americas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lithium. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lithium can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lithium Americas Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Lithium Americas' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Lithium Americas' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Lithium Americas' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Lithium Americas.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lithium Americas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lithium Americas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lithium Americas options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lithium Americas to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Lithium Americas Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lithium Americas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Lithium Stock analysis
When running Lithium Americas' price analysis, check to measure Lithium Americas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lithium Americas is operating at the current time. Most of Lithium Americas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lithium Americas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lithium Americas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lithium Americas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lithium Americas' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lithium Americas. If investors know Lithium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lithium Americas listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.126 | Earnings Share (0.02) | Revenue Per Share (0.02) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Lithium Americas Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lithium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lithium Americas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lithium Americas' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lithium Americas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lithium Americas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lithium Americas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lithium Americas is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lithium Americas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.