Lixte Biotech Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

LIXT -  USA Stock  

USD 2.75  0.07  2.48%

Lixte Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lixte Biotech historical stock prices and determine the direction of Lixte Biotech Hlds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Lixte Biotech historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lixte Biotech to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Lixte Biotech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lixte Biotech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lixte Biotech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Lixte Biotech polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Lixte Biotech Hlds as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Lixte Biotech Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Lixte Biotech Hlds on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.015896, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.82. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lixte Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lixte Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lixte Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern

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Lixte Biotech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lixte Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lixte Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0275 and 7.06, respectively. We have considered Lixte Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.75
30th of July 2021
0.0275
Downside
2.64
Expected Value
7.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lixte Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lixte Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9688
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0955
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0327
SAESum of the absolute errors5.823
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Lixte Biotech historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Lixte Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lixte Biotech Hlds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lixte Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Lixte Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.142.757.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.122.386.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.592.953.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lixte Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lixte Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lixte Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Lixte Biotech Hlds.

Other Forecasting Options for Lixte Biotech

For every potential investor in Lixte, whether a beginner or expert, Lixte Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lixte Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lixte. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lixte Biotech's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lixte Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lixte Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lixte Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Lixte Biotech Hlds Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lixte Biotech's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lixte Biotech's current price.

Lixte Biotech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lixte Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lixte Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lixte Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lixte Biotech Hlds entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lixte Biotech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lixte Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lixte Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Lixte Biotech stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Lixte Biotech Investors Sentiment

The influence of Lixte Biotech's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Lixte. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - LIXT

Lixte Biotech Hlds Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their trading attitude regarding investing in Lixte Biotech Hlds. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Lixte Biotech Hlds? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lixte Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Lixte Biotech Hlds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lixte Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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The market value of Lixte Biotech Hlds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lixte that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lixte Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lixte Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lixte Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lixte Biotech Hlds underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lixte Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Lixte Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lixte Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.