Lenovo OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LNVGY -  USA Stock  

USD 20.34  0.84  4.31%

Lenovo OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lenovo historical stock prices and determine the direction of Lenovo Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Lenovo historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lenovo to cross-verify your projections.

Lenovo O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Lenovo cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lenovo's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lenovo's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Lenovo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Lenovo Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Lenovo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lenovo Group on the next trading day is expected to be 17.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16, mean absolute percentage error of 2.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.92. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lenovo OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lenovo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lenovo OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest LenovoLenovo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Lenovo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lenovo's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lenovo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.91 and 22.71, respectively. We have considered Lenovo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.34
29th of November 2021
17.81
Expected Value
22.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lenovo otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lenovo otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.129
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1626
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0509
SAESum of the absolute errors70.9194
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Lenovo Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Lenovo. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Lenovo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lenovo Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lenovo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Lenovo in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.5819.4924.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.5015.4120.32
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.9011.9011.90
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.011.011.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lenovo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lenovo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lenovo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Lenovo Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Lenovo

For every potential investor in Lenovo, whether a beginner or expert, Lenovo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lenovo OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lenovo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lenovo's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lenovo otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lenovo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lenovo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Lenovo Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lenovo's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lenovo's current price.

Lenovo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lenovo otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lenovo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lenovo otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lenovo Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lenovo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lenovo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lenovo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Lenovo stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Lenovo Investors Sentiment

The influence of Lenovo's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Lenovo. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lenovo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lenovo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lenovo options trading.

Current Sentiment - LNVGY

Lenovo Group Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Lenovo Group. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Lenovo Group? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lenovo to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Lenovo Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lenovo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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When running Lenovo Group price analysis, check to measure Lenovo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lenovo is operating at the current time. Most of Lenovo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lenovo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lenovo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lenovo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lenovo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lenovo. If investors know Lenovo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lenovo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Lenovo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lenovo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lenovo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lenovo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lenovo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lenovo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lenovo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Lenovo value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lenovo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.