Logitech International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

LOGI Stock  USD 89.60  1.14  1.29%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Logitech International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 89.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.55. Logitech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Logitech International stock prices and determine the direction of Logitech International SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Logitech International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Logitech International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Logitech International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Logitech International fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Logitech International to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of now, Logitech International's Inventory Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The Logitech International's current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 6.50, while Payables Turnover is projected to decrease to 6.30. . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 167.6 M. The current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to decrease to about 210.8 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Logitech Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Logitech International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Logitech International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Logitech International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Logitech International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Logitech International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Logitech International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Logitech. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Logitech International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Logitech International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Logitech International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Logitech International simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Logitech International SA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Logitech International prices get older.

Logitech International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Logitech International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 89.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.24, mean absolute percentage error of 3.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Logitech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Logitech International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Logitech International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Logitech InternationalLogitech International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Logitech International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Logitech International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Logitech International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.22 and 91.71, respectively. We have considered Logitech International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
89.60
89.47
Expected Value
91.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Logitech International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Logitech International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6488
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0948
MADMean absolute deviation1.2425
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors74.5504
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Logitech International SA forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Logitech International observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Logitech International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Logitech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Logitech International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
87.5289.7692.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
79.6981.9398.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
87.7389.6191.49
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
67.5274.2082.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Logitech International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Logitech International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Logitech International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Logitech International.

Other Forecasting Options for Logitech International

For every potential investor in Logitech, whether a beginner or expert, Logitech International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Logitech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Logitech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Logitech International's price trends.

Logitech International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Logitech International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Logitech International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Logitech International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Logitech International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Logitech International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Logitech International's current price.

Logitech International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Logitech International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Logitech International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Logitech International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Logitech International SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Logitech International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Logitech International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Logitech International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting logitech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Logitech International Investors Sentiment

The influence of Logitech International's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Logitech. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Logitech International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Logitech. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Logitech can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Logitech International SA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Logitech International's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Logitech International's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Logitech International's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Logitech International.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Logitech International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Logitech International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Logitech International options trading.

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When determining whether Logitech International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Logitech International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Logitech International Sa Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Logitech International Sa Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Logitech International to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Logitech International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Logitech International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for Logitech Stock analysis

When running Logitech International's price analysis, check to measure Logitech International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Logitech International is operating at the current time. Most of Logitech International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Logitech International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Logitech International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Logitech International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Logitech International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Logitech International. If investors know Logitech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Logitech International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.802
Dividend Share
1.16
Earnings Share
3.07
Revenue Per Share
26.847
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of Logitech International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Logitech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Logitech International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Logitech International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Logitech International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Logitech International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Logitech International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Logitech International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Logitech International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.