Loral Space Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LORL -  USA Stock  

USD 41.52  0.00  0.00%

Loral Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Loral Space historical stock prices and determine the direction of Loral Space Comm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Loral Space historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Loral Space naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Loral Space Comm systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Loral Space fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Stocks Correlation.

Loral Stock Forecast 

 
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Loral Space Cash and Equivalents Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated at 7.47. Loral Space Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 36.56 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 34.3 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (26.8 K).

Open Interest Agains t 2021-12-17 Loral Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Loral Space's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Loral Space's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Loral Space stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Loral Space's open interest, investors have to compare it to Loral Space's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Loral Space is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Loral. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Loral Space cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Loral Space's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Loral Space's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Loral Space is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Loral Space Comm value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Loral Space Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Loral Space Comm on the next trading day is expected to be 38.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 3.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.04. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Loral Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Loral Space's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Loral Space Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Loral SpaceLoral Space Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Loral Space stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Loral Space stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2576
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3941
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0311
SAESum of the absolute errors85.0394
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Loral Space Comm. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Loral Space. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Loral Space

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Loral Space Comm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Loral Space's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Loral Space in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.1841.1244.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
37.3940.3343.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
38.4247.0655.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Loral Space. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Loral Space's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Loral Space's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Loral Space Comm.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Loral Space stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Loral Space could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Loral Space by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Loral Space Risk Indicators

The analysis of Loral Space's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Loral Space's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Loral Space stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Loral Space Investors Sentiment

The influence of Loral Space's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Loral. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Loral Space Implied Volatility

    
  82.42  
Loral Space's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Loral Space Comm stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Loral Space's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Loral Space stock will not fluctuate a lot when Loral Space's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Loral Space in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Loral Space's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Loral Space options trading.

Current Sentiment - LORL

Loral Space Comm Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Loral Space Comm. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Loral Space Comm? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, see Stocks Correlation. Note that the Loral Space Comm information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Loral Space's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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Is Loral Space's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Loral Space. If investors know Loral will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Loral Space listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Loral Space Comm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Loral that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Loral Space's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Loral Space's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Loral Space's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Loral Space's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Loral Space's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Loral Space value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Loral Space's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.