Lightspeed Commerce Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| LSPD Stock | USD 13.59 0.07 0.52% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lightspeed Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 13.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.88. Lightspeed Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lightspeed Commerce stock prices and determine the direction of Lightspeed Commerce's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lightspeed Commerce's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Lightspeed Commerce's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lightspeed Commerce's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lightspeed Commerce fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightspeed Commerce to cross-verify your projections. Lightspeed |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Lightspeed Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lightspeed Commerce's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lightspeed Commerce's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lightspeed Commerce stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lightspeed Commerce's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lightspeed Commerce's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lightspeed Commerce is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lightspeed. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Lightspeed Commerce cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lightspeed Commerce's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lightspeed Commerce's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Lightspeed Commerce - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Lightspeed Commerce prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Lightspeed Commerce price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Lightspeed Commerce. Lightspeed Commerce Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lightspeed Commerce on the next trading day is expected to be 13.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lightspeed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lightspeed Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lightspeed Commerce Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lightspeed Commerce | Lightspeed Commerce Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lightspeed Commerce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lightspeed Commerce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lightspeed Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.55 and 17.59, respectively. We have considered Lightspeed Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lightspeed Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lightspeed Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1222 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.398 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0275 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.8796 |
Predictive Modules for Lightspeed Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lightspeed Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lightspeed Commerce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lightspeed Commerce
For every potential investor in Lightspeed, whether a beginner or expert, Lightspeed Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lightspeed Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lightspeed. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lightspeed Commerce's price trends.View Lightspeed Commerce Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lightspeed Commerce Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lightspeed Commerce's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lightspeed Commerce's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lightspeed Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lightspeed Commerce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lightspeed Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lightspeed Commerce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lightspeed Commerce entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lightspeed Commerce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lightspeed Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lightspeed Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightspeed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.98 | |||
| Variance | 15.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightspeed Commerce to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lightspeed Stock refer to our How to Trade Lightspeed Stock guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Lightspeed Stock analysis
When running Lightspeed Commerce's price analysis, check to measure Lightspeed Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lightspeed Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of Lightspeed Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lightspeed Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lightspeed Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lightspeed Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account |
Is Lightspeed Commerce's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lightspeed Commerce. If investors know Lightspeed will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lightspeed Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.33) | Revenue Per Share 5.643 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.27 | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.08) |
The market value of Lightspeed Commerce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lightspeed that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lightspeed Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lightspeed Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lightspeed Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lightspeed Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lightspeed Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lightspeed Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lightspeed Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.