Magellan Aerospace OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MALJF -  USA Stock  

USD 7.98  0.00  0.00%

Magellan OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Magellan Aerospace historical stock prices and determine the direction of Magellan Aerospace C's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Magellan Aerospace historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magellan Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.

Magellan O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Magellan Aerospace cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Magellan Aerospace's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Magellan Aerospace's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Magellan Aerospace is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Magellan Aerospace C value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Magellan Aerospace Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magellan Aerospace C on the next trading day is expected to be 8.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01299, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.95. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magellan OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magellan Aerospace's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magellan Aerospace OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Magellan Aerospace Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Magellan Aerospace's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magellan Aerospace's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.46 and 9.82, respectively. We have considered Magellan Aerospace's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.98
29th of November 2021
8.14
Expected Value
9.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magellan Aerospace otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magellan Aerospace otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7669
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0811
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors4.95
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Magellan Aerospace C. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Magellan Aerospace. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Magellan Aerospace

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magellan Aerospace's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Magellan Aerospace in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.307.989.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.488.169.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magellan Aerospace. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magellan Aerospace's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magellan Aerospace's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Magellan Aerospace.

Other Forecasting Options for Magellan Aerospace

For every potential investor in Magellan, whether a beginner or expert, Magellan Aerospace's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magellan OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magellan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magellan Aerospace's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magellan Aerospace otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magellan Aerospace could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magellan Aerospace by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Magellan Aerospace Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magellan Aerospace's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magellan Aerospace's current price.

Magellan Aerospace Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magellan Aerospace's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magellan Aerospace's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Magellan Aerospace stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Magellan Aerospace Investors Sentiment

The influence of Magellan Aerospace's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Magellan. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Magellan Aerospace in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Magellan Aerospace's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Magellan Aerospace options trading.

Current Sentiment - MALJF

Magellan Aerospace Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their trading attitude regarding investing in Magellan Aerospace C. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Magellan Aerospace C? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magellan Aerospace to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Magellan Aerospace information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Magellan Aerospace's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Magellan Aerospace's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Magellan Aerospace. If investors know Magellan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Magellan Aerospace listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Magellan Aerospace is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Magellan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Magellan Aerospace's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Magellan Aerospace's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Magellan Aerospace's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Magellan Aerospace's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Magellan Aerospace's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Magellan Aerospace value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Magellan Aerospace's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.