Magellan Aerospace Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

MALJF Stock  USD 6.21  0.09  1.47%   
Magellan Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Magellan Aerospace stock prices and determine the direction of Magellan Aerospace's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Magellan Aerospace historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magellan Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Magellan Aerospace cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Magellan Aerospace's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Magellan Aerospace's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Magellan Aerospace is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Magellan Aerospace value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Magellan Aerospace Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magellan Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 6.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magellan Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magellan Aerospace's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magellan Aerospace Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Magellan Aerospace Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Magellan Aerospace's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magellan Aerospace's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.91 and 7.80, respectively. We have considered Magellan Aerospace's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.21
6.35
Expected Value
7.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magellan Aerospace pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magellan Aerospace pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9253
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0599
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors3.6567
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Magellan Aerospace. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Magellan Aerospace. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Magellan Aerospace

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magellan Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magellan Aerospace's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Magellan Aerospace in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.776.217.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.555.997.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magellan Aerospace. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magellan Aerospace's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magellan Aerospace's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Magellan Aerospace.

Other Forecasting Options for Magellan Aerospace

For every potential investor in Magellan, whether a beginner or expert, Magellan Aerospace's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magellan Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magellan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magellan Aerospace's price trends.

Magellan Aerospace Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magellan Aerospace pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magellan Aerospace could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magellan Aerospace by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
PT Bank RakyatBank Mandiri PerseroBank Mandiri PerseroBank Central AsiaPT Bank CentralBank RakyatTelkom Indonesia TbkTelkom Indonesia TbkAstra International TbkAirbnbIncAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Magellan Aerospace Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magellan Aerospace's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magellan Aerospace's current price.

Magellan Aerospace Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magellan Aerospace pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magellan Aerospace shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magellan Aerospace pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Magellan Aerospace entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Magellan Aerospace Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magellan Aerospace's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magellan Aerospace's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Magellan Aerospace stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magellan Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Magellan Aerospace's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Magellan Aerospace is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Magellan Aerospace's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.