Marathon Digital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MARA Stock | USD 15.03 0.40 2.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Digital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 10.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.12. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marathon Digital stock prices and determine the direction of Marathon Digital Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marathon Digital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Marathon Digital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Marathon Digital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Marathon Digital fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Digital to cross-verify your projections. Marathon |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Marathon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Marathon Digital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Marathon Digital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Marathon Digital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Marathon Digital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Marathon Digital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Marathon Digital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Marathon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Marathon Digital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marathon Digital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marathon Digital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Marathon Digital is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marathon Digital Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Marathon Digital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Digital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 10.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Digital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Digital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Digital | Marathon Digital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Marathon Digital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Digital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Digital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.47 and 17.60, respectively. We have considered Marathon Digital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Digital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Digital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6259 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7725 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0846 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.1211 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Digital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Digital Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Digital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Digital
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Digital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Digital's price trends.Marathon Digital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Digital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Digital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Digital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Digital Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marathon Digital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marathon Digital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Digital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Digital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Digital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Digital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Digital Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Digital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Digital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Digital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.45 | |||
| Variance | 55.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 39.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 38.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Digital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Marathon Stock analysis
When running Marathon Digital's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Digital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Digital is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Digital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Digital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Digital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Digital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum |
Is Marathon Digital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Digital. If investors know Marathon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marathon Digital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 1.06 | Revenue Per Share 2.108 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 4.517 | Return On Assets 0.0867 | Return On Equity 0.2609 |
The market value of Marathon Digital Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Digital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Digital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marathon Digital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Digital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marathon Digital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marathon Digital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marathon Digital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.