Microchip Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MCHP Stock | USD 86.19 2.66 3.18% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microchip Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 85.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.03. Microchip Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microchip Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Microchip Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Microchip Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Microchip Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Microchip Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Microchip Technology fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microchip Technology to cross-verify your projections. Microchip |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Microchip Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microchip Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Microchip Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Microchip Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microchip Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Microchip Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microchip Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microchip. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Microchip Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Microchip Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Microchip Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Microchip Technology simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Microchip Technology are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Microchip Technology prices get older. Microchip Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microchip Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 85.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 2.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microchip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microchip Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microchip Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
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Microchip Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microchip Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microchip Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.93 and 88.06, respectively. We have considered Microchip Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microchip Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microchip Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0101 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.026 |
Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microchip Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microchip Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Microchip Technology
For every potential investor in Microchip, whether a beginner or expert, Microchip Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microchip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microchip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microchip Technology's price trends.Microchip Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microchip Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microchip Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microchip Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microchip Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microchip Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microchip Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Microchip Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microchip Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microchip Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microchip Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microchip Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 197040.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8261 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 85.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 85.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.66 |
Microchip Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microchip Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microchip Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microchip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microchip Technology to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Microchip Stock, please use our How to Invest in Microchip Technology guide.Note that the Microchip Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microchip Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for Microchip Stock analysis
When running Microchip Technology's price analysis, check to measure Microchip Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microchip Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Microchip Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microchip Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microchip Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microchip Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microchip Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microchip Technology. If investors know Microchip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microchip Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.26) | Dividend Share 1.59 | Earnings Share 4.28 | Revenue Per Share 15.7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
The market value of Microchip Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microchip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microchip Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microchip Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microchip Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microchip Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microchip Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microchip Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microchip Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.