Mfs International Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

MDIHX Fund  USD 22.00  0.13  0.59%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Mfs International Diversification on the next trading day is expected to be 22.84 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.19  and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.69. Mfs Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mfs International stock prices and determine the direction of Mfs International Diversification's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mfs International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs International to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Mfs International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mfs International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mfs International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Mfs International price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Mfs International Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Mfs International Diversification on the next trading day is expected to be 22.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mfs Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mfs International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mfs International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Mfs International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mfs International's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mfs International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.26 and 23.42, respectively. We have considered Mfs International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.00
22.84
Expected Value
23.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mfs International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mfs International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4033
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1917
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors11.6914
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Mfs International Diversification historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Mfs International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mfs International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.4122.0022.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.3921.9822.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mfs International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mfs International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mfs International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mfs International.

Other Forecasting Options for Mfs International

For every potential investor in Mfs, whether a beginner or expert, Mfs International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mfs Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mfs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mfs International's price trends.

Mfs International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mfs International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mfs International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mfs International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mfs International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mfs International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mfs International's current price.

Mfs International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mfs International mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mfs International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mfs International mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mfs International Diversification entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mfs International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mfs International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mfs International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mfs mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mfs International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mfs International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mfs International options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs International to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Mfs International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mfs International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mfs International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mfs International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mfs International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.