Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| MEG Stock | USD 41.39 0.09 0.22% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.68. Montrose Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Montrose Environmental stock prices and determine the direction of Montrose Environmental Grp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Montrose Environmental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Montrose Environmental's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Montrose Environmental's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Montrose Environmental fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections. Montrose |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Montrose Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Montrose Environmental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Montrose Environmental's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Montrose Environmental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Montrose Environmental's open interest, investors have to compare it to Montrose Environmental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Montrose Environmental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Montrose. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Montrose Environmental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Montrose Environmental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Montrose Environmental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Montrose Environmental Grp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Montrose Environmental 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49, mean absolute percentage error of 4.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Montrose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Montrose Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Montrose Environmental | Montrose Environmental Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Montrose Environmental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Montrose Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Montrose Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.52 and 46.04, respectively. We have considered Montrose Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Montrose Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Montrose Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1412 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4456 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4945 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0385 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 86.6825 |
Predictive Modules for Montrose Environmental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Montrose Environmental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Montrose Environmental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Montrose Environmental
For every potential investor in Montrose, whether a beginner or expert, Montrose Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Montrose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Montrose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Montrose Environmental's price trends.Montrose Environmental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Montrose Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Montrose Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Montrose Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Montrose Environmental Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Montrose Environmental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Montrose Environmental's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Montrose Environmental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Montrose Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Montrose Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Montrose Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Montrose Environmental Grp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Montrose Environmental Risk Indicators
The analysis of Montrose Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Montrose Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting montrose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.15 | |||
| Variance | 26.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Montrose Environmental in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Montrose Environmental's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Montrose Environmental options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Montrose Environmental information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Montrose Environmental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Montrose Stock analysis
When running Montrose Environmental's price analysis, check to measure Montrose Environmental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Montrose Environmental is operating at the current time. Most of Montrose Environmental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Montrose Environmental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Montrose Environmental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Montrose Environmental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Cryptocurrency Center Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated |
Is Montrose Environmental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Montrose Environmental. If investors know Montrose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Montrose Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.57) | Revenue Per Share 20.767 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.188 | Return On Assets (0.02) | Return On Equity (0.07) |
The market value of Montrose Environmental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Montrose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Montrose Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Montrose Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Montrose Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Montrose Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Montrose Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Montrose Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Montrose Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.