Global Quality Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

MGQSX Fund  USD 19.37  0.01  0.05%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Quality Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.11  and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.44. Global Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Global Quality stock prices and determine the direction of Global Quality Portfolio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Global Quality's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Quality to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Global Quality cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Global Quality's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Global Quality's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Global Quality works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Global Quality Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Quality Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Quality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Global Quality Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Global QualityGlobal Quality Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Global Quality Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Global Quality's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Quality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.65 and 20.03, respectively. We have considered Global Quality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.37
19.34
Expected Value
20.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Quality mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Quality mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0157
MADMean absolute deviation0.1091
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0057
SAESum of the absolute errors6.4384
When Global Quality Portfolio prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Global Quality Portfolio trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Global Quality observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Global Quality

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Quality Portfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Quality's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.6819.3720.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.8018.4921.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.3619.3719.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Global Quality. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Global Quality's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Global Quality's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Global Quality Portfolio.

Other Forecasting Options for Global Quality

For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Quality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Quality's price trends.

Global Quality Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Quality mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Quality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Quality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Global Quality Portfolio Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Global Quality's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Global Quality's current price.

Global Quality Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Quality mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Quality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Quality mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Quality Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Global Quality Risk Indicators

The analysis of Global Quality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Quality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Quality to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.

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When running Global Quality's price analysis, check to measure Global Quality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Quality is operating at the current time. Most of Global Quality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Quality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Quality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Quality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Quality's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Global Quality is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Quality's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.