# Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MNEAX Fund | USD 10.03 0.03 0.30% |

Mainstay Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mainstay Conservative stock prices and determine the direction of Mainstay Conservative Etf's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mainstay Conservative historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mainstay Conservative to cross-verify your projections. Mainstay |

Most investors in Mainstay Conservative cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mainstay Conservative's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mainstay Conservative's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

Mainstay Conservative simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Mainstay Conservative Etf are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Mainstay Conservative Etf prices get older. ## Mainstay Conservative Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mainstay Conservative Etf on the next trading day is expected to be 10.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.039833, mean absolute percentage error of 0.002805, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mainstay Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mainstay Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mainstay Conservative | Mainstay Conservative Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## Mainstay Conservative Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mainstay Conservative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mainstay Conservative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.49 and 10.57, respectively. We have considered Mainstay Conservative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mainstay Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mainstay Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.3963 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0015 |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0398 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0041 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.39 |

## Predictive Modules for Mainstay Conservative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Conservative Etf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mainstay Conservative in the context of predictive analytics.

## Other Forecasting Options for Mainstay Conservative

For every potential investor in Mainstay, whether a beginner or expert, Mainstay Conservative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mainstay Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mainstay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mainstay Conservative's price trends.## Mainstay Conservative Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mainstay Conservative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mainstay Conservative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mainstay Conservative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## Mainstay Conservative Etf Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mainstay Conservative's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mainstay Conservative's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## Mainstay Conservative Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mainstay Conservative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mainstay Conservative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mainstay Conservative stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 0.3983 | |||

Semi Deviation | 0.5244 | |||

Standard Deviation | 0.5417 | |||

Variance | 0.2934 | |||

Downside Variance | 0.3872 | |||

Semi Variance | 0.275 | |||

Expected Short fall | (0.40) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Conservative in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Conservative's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Conservative options trading.

## Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Mainstay Conservative Etf using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.## Build Optimal Portfolios

### Align your risk with return expectations

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mainstay Conservative to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mainstay Conservative Etf information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mainstay Conservative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

## Complementary Tools for Mainstay Mutual Fund analysis

When running Mainstay Conservative's price analysis, check to measure Mainstay Conservative's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mainstay Conservative is operating at the current time. Most of Mainstay Conservative's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mainstay Conservative's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mainstay Conservative's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mainstay Conservative to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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