Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MNEAX Fund | USD 10.03 0.03 0.30% |
Mainstay Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mainstay Conservative stock prices and determine the direction of Mainstay Conservative Etf's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Mainstay Conservative historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mainstay Conservative to cross-verify your projections. Mainstay |
Most investors in Mainstay Conservative cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mainstay Conservative's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mainstay Conservative's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Mainstay Conservative is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Mainstay Conservative Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mainstay Conservative Etf on the next trading day is expected to be 10.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.045763, mean absolute percentage error of 0.003933, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mainstay Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mainstay Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mainstay Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Mainstay Conservative Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mainstay Conservative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mainstay Conservative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.50 and 10.59, respectively. We have considered Mainstay Conservative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mainstay Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mainstay Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.8964 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0458 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.7 |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Conservative
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Conservative Etf. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Mainstay Conservative in the context of predictive analytics.
Other Forecasting Options for Mainstay Conservative
For every potential investor in Mainstay, whether a beginner or expert, Mainstay Conservative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mainstay Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mainstay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mainstay Conservative's price trends.Mainstay Conservative Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mainstay Conservative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mainstay Conservative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mainstay Conservative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mainstay Conservative Etf Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mainstay Conservative's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mainstay Conservative's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Mainstay Conservative Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mainstay Conservative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mainstay Conservative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Mainstay Conservative stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3983 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5244 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5417 | |||
| Variance | 0.2934 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3872 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.275 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Be your own money manager
Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Mainstay Conservative without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.Did you try this?
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mainstay Conservative to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Mainstay Conservative Etf information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mainstay Conservative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Complementary Tools for Mainstay Mutual Fund analysis
When running Mainstay Conservative's price analysis, check to measure Mainstay Conservative's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mainstay Conservative is operating at the current time. Most of Mainstay Conservative's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mainstay Conservative's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mainstay Conservative's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mainstay Conservative to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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