Altria Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MO -  USA Stock  

USD 51.37  1.83  3.44%

Altria Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Altria historical stock prices and determine the direction of Altria Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Altria historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Altria naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Altria Group systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Altria fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altria to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Altria Receivables Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Receivables Turnover is estimated at 212.98. Inventory Turnover is expected to rise to 7.83 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 11.26. . Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 2.3 B this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to about 1.8 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-20 Altria Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Altria's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Altria's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Altria stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Altria's open interest, investors have to compare it to Altria's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Altria is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Altria. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Altria cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Altria's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Altria's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Altria is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Altria Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Altria Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Altria Group on the next trading day is expected to be 52.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.32. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altria's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Altria Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AltriaAltria Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Altria Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Altria's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Altria's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.50 and 53.82, respectively. We have considered Altria's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 51.37
52.16
Expected Value
53.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altria stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altria stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9272
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6938
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors42.3228
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Altria Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Altria. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Altria

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altria Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altria's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Altria in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
49.6051.2652.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
50.0151.6753.33
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0050.8856.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.604.624.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Altria. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Altria's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Altria's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Altria Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Altria

For every potential investor in Altria, whether a beginner or expert, Altria's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Altria Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Altria. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Altria's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altria stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altria could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altria by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Altria Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Altria's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Altria's current price.

Altria Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Altria stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Altria shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Altria stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Altria Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Altria Risk Indicators

The analysis of Altria's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Altria's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Altria stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Altria Investors Sentiment

The influence of Altria's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Altria. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Altria Implied Volatility

    
  37.9  
Altria's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Altria Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Altria's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Altria stock will not fluctuate a lot when Altria's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Altria in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Altria's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Altria options trading.

Current Sentiment - MO

Altria Group Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Altria Group. What is your sentiment towards investing in Altria Group? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altria to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Altria Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Altria's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Altria Stock analysis

When running Altria Group price analysis, check to measure Altria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altria is operating at the current time. Most of Altria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Altria's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altria. If investors know Altria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altria listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Altria Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altria that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altria's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altria's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altria's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altria's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altria's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Altria value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altria's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.