Altria Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

MO
 Stock
  

USD 42.25  0.53  1.27%   

Altria Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Altria historical stock prices and determine the direction of Altria Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Altria historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Altria naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Altria Group systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Altria fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altria to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Altria Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 8.13. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to rise to 4.14 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 12.88. . Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 2.1 B this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to about 1.8 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-08 Altria Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Altria's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Altria's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Altria stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Altria's open interest, investors have to compare it to Altria's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Altria is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Altria. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Altria cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Altria's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Altria's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Altria Group is based on a synthetically constructed Altriadaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Altria Group Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Altria's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Altria. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Altria can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Altria Group. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Altria's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Altria's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Altria's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Altria.

Altria 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Altria Group on the next trading day is expected to be 44.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.03, mean absolute percentage error of 14.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.17. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altria Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altria's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Altria Stock Forecast Pattern

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Altria Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Altria's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Altria's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.53 and 47.01, respectively. We have considered Altria's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 42.25
44.77
Expected Value
47.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altria stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altria stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria85.8308
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 2.7356
MADMean absolute deviation3.0279
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0663
SAESum of the absolute errors127.173
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Altria Group 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Altria

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altria Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altria's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Altria in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.6040.8243.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.0741.2943.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
38.2246.5754.92
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
46.0050.8856.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Altria. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Altria's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Altria's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Altria Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Altria

For every potential investor in Altria, whether a beginner or expert, Altria's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Altria Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Altria. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Altria's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altria stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altria could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altria by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Altria Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Altria's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Altria's current price.

Altria Risk Indicators

The analysis of Altria's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Altria's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Altria stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Altria without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Altria to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Altria Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Altria's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Altria Group price analysis, check to measure Altria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altria is operating at the current time. Most of Altria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Altria's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altria. If investors know Altria will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altria listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.41
Market Capitalization
75.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.013
Return On Assets
0.17
Return On Equity
0.47
The market value of Altria Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altria that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altria's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altria's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altria's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altria's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altria's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Altria value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altria's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.