Castle Focus Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MOATX Fund | USD 12.76 0.00 0.00% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Castle Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 12.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.05. Castle Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Castle Focus stock prices and determine the direction of Castle Focus Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Castle Focus' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Castle Focus to cross-verify your projections. Castle |
Most investors in Castle Focus cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Castle Focus' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Castle Focus' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Castle Focus - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Castle Focus prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Castle Focus price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Castle Focus. Castle Focus Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Castle Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 12.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Castle Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Castle Focus' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Castle Focus Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Castle Focus Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Castle Focus' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Castle Focus' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.32 and 13.20, respectively. We have considered Castle Focus' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Castle Focus mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Castle Focus mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0097 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0348 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.0548 |
Predictive Modules for Castle Focus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castle Focus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castle Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Castle Focus
For every potential investor in Castle, whether a beginner or expert, Castle Focus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Castle Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Castle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Castle Focus' price trends.Castle Focus Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Castle Focus mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Castle Focus could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Castle Focus by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Castle Focus Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Castle Focus' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Castle Focus' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Castle Focus Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Castle Focus mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Castle Focus shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Castle Focus mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Castle Focus Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Castle Focus Risk Indicators
The analysis of Castle Focus' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Castle Focus' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting castle mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2806 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3643 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4603 | |||
| Variance | 0.2119 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6144 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1327 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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