Morphic Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MORF Stock | USD 27.50 0.37 1.33% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morphic Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 26.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83. Morphic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Morphic Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Morphic Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Morphic Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Morphic Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Morphic Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Morphic Holding fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morphic Holding to cross-verify your projections. Morphic |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Morphic Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Morphic Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Morphic Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Morphic Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Morphic Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to Morphic Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Morphic Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Morphic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Morphic Holding cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Morphic Holding's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Morphic Holding's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Morphic Holding is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Morphic Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Morphic Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Morphic Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 26.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Morphic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Morphic Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Morphic Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Morphic Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Morphic Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Morphic Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.40 and 30.55, respectively. We have considered Morphic Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Morphic Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Morphic Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4334 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.8335 |
Predictive Modules for Morphic Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morphic Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morphic Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Morphic Holding
For every potential investor in Morphic, whether a beginner or expert, Morphic Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Morphic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Morphic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Morphic Holding's price trends.Morphic Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Morphic Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Morphic Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Morphic Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Morphic Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Morphic Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Morphic Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Morphic Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Morphic Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Morphic Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Morphic Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Morphic Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Morphic Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Morphic Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morphic Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morphic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.51 | |||
| Variance | 12.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.99 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morphic Holding to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Morphic Stock please use our How to Invest in Morphic Holding guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for Morphic Stock analysis
When running Morphic Holding's price analysis, check to measure Morphic Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Morphic Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Morphic Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Morphic Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Morphic Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Morphic Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Morphic Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Morphic Holding. If investors know Morphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Morphic Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.59) | Revenue Per Share 0.012 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.20) | Return On Equity (0.29) |
The market value of Morphic Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Morphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Morphic Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Morphic Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Morphic Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Morphic Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Morphic Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Morphic Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Morphic Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.