Mereo BioPharma Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MREO Stock  USD 3.00  0.05  1.69%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mereo BioPharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 2.75 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.15  and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.19. Mereo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mereo BioPharma stock prices and determine the direction of Mereo BioPharma Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mereo BioPharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Mereo BioPharma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Mereo BioPharma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mereo BioPharma fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mereo BioPharma to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.78, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (0.33). . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 145.7 M, while Net Loss is likely to drop (32.3 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Mereo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mereo BioPharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mereo BioPharma's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mereo BioPharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mereo BioPharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mereo BioPharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mereo BioPharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mereo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Mereo BioPharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mereo BioPharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mereo BioPharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Mereo BioPharma polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Mereo BioPharma Group as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Mereo BioPharma Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mereo BioPharma Group on the next trading day is expected to be 2.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mereo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mereo BioPharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mereo BioPharma Stock Forecast Pattern

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Mereo BioPharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mereo BioPharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mereo BioPharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.68, respectively. We have considered Mereo BioPharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.00
2.75
Expected Value
6.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mereo BioPharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mereo BioPharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4973
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1483
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.044
SAESum of the absolute errors9.1949
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Mereo BioPharma historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Mereo BioPharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mereo BioPharma Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mereo BioPharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.152.986.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.183.677.60
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.874.254.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mereo BioPharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mereo BioPharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mereo BioPharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mereo BioPharma Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Mereo BioPharma

For every potential investor in Mereo, whether a beginner or expert, Mereo BioPharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mereo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mereo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mereo BioPharma's price trends.

Mereo BioPharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mereo BioPharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mereo BioPharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mereo BioPharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mereo BioPharma Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mereo BioPharma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mereo BioPharma's current price.

Mereo BioPharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mereo BioPharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mereo BioPharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mereo BioPharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mereo BioPharma Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mereo BioPharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mereo BioPharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mereo BioPharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mereo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Mereo BioPharma Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mereo BioPharma's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mereo Biopharma Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mereo Biopharma Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mereo BioPharma to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Mereo BioPharma Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mereo BioPharma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Mereo Stock analysis

When running Mereo BioPharma's price analysis, check to measure Mereo BioPharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mereo BioPharma is operating at the current time. Most of Mereo BioPharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mereo BioPharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mereo BioPharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mereo BioPharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mereo BioPharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mereo BioPharma. If investors know Mereo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mereo BioPharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.31)
Revenue Per Share
0.057
Return On Assets
(0.21)
Return On Equity
(0.41)
The market value of Mereo BioPharma Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mereo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mereo BioPharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mereo BioPharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mereo BioPharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mereo BioPharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mereo BioPharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mereo BioPharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mereo BioPharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.