Merck Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MRK
 Stock
  

USD 90.60  0.42  0.46%   

Merck Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merck historical stock prices and determine the direction of Merck Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Merck historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Merck naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Merck Company systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Merck fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections.
  
Merck Accounts Payable Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 10.58. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 33.66, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to decrease to 5.20. . The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 3 B, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to under 2.5 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Merck Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merck's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Merck's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Merck stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merck's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merck's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merck is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Merck cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merck's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merck's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Merck is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Merck Company value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Merck Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 95.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merck Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MerckMerck Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Merck Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.63 and 97.21, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 90.60
95.92
Expected Value
97.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.0562
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1794
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors71.9441
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Merck Company. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Merck. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Merck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merck in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
89.0090.3091.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
89.1290.4291.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
85.8289.7093.59
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0090.88110.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merck Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Merck

For every potential investor in Merck, whether a beginner or expert, Merck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merck's price trends.

Merck Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Abeona TherapeuticsIntel CorpInternational BusinessMcDonalds CorpProcter GambleMicrosoft CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome Depot
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merck Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merck's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merck's current price.

Merck Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merck Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merck Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Merck stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Merck Investors Sentiment

The influence of Merck's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Merck. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Merck's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Merck. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merck can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merck Company. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Merck's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Merck's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Merck's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Merck.

Merck Implied Volatility

    
  25.48  
Merck's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merck Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merck's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merck stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merck's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Merck in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Merck's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Merck options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Merck Company using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Merck Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merck's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Merck Company price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.54
Market Capitalization
230.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.28
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.43
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merck value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.