Moderna Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| MRNA Stock | USD 104.46 3.05 3.01% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 104.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.15. Moderna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moderna stock prices and determine the direction of Moderna's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moderna's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections. Moderna |
Most investors in Moderna cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moderna's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moderna's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Moderna is based on a synthetically constructed Modernadaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Moderna 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 104.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.44, mean absolute percentage error of 35.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moderna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moderna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moderna Stock Forecast Pattern
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Moderna Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Moderna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moderna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.57 and 108.38, respectively. We have considered Moderna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moderna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moderna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 84.9184 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.08 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.4427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0423 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 182.1515 |
Predictive Modules for Moderna
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Moderna
For every potential investor in Moderna, whether a beginner or expert, Moderna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moderna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moderna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moderna's price trends.View Moderna Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moderna Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moderna's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moderna's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moderna Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moderna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moderna entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Moderna Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moderna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moderna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.41 | |||
| Variance | 11.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis
When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.