Moderna Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MRNA Stock  USD 103.86  1.28  1.22%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 103.86 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.51  and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.76. Moderna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Moderna stock prices and determine the direction of Moderna's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moderna's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Moderna's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Moderna's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Moderna fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
  
At present, Moderna's Inventory Turnover is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 2.83, whereas Payables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 6.42. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 10.1 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 346.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Moderna Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Moderna's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Moderna's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Moderna stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Moderna's open interest, investors have to compare it to Moderna's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Moderna is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Moderna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Moderna cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Moderna's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Moderna's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Moderna simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Moderna are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Moderna prices get older.

Moderna Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Moderna on the next trading day is expected to be 103.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.51, mean absolute percentage error of 11.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moderna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moderna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Moderna Stock Forecast Pattern

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Moderna Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Moderna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moderna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 100.46 and 107.26, respectively. We have considered Moderna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
103.86
100.46
Downside
103.86
Expected Value
107.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moderna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moderna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6706
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0693
MADMean absolute deviation2.5127
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0251
SAESum of the absolute errors150.76
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Moderna forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Moderna observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Moderna

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moderna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
100.59103.99107.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
93.47134.48137.88
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
152.56167.65186.09
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-4.32-3.35-3.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Moderna. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Moderna's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Moderna's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Moderna.

Other Forecasting Options for Moderna

For every potential investor in Moderna, whether a beginner or expert, Moderna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moderna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moderna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moderna's price trends.

View Moderna Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Moderna Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Moderna's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Moderna's current price.

Moderna Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moderna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moderna entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Moderna Risk Indicators

The analysis of Moderna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moderna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moderna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Moderna Investors Sentiment

The influence of Moderna's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Moderna. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Moderna's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moderna. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moderna can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moderna. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Moderna's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Moderna's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Moderna's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Moderna.

Moderna Implied Volatility

    
  69.47  
Moderna's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Moderna stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Moderna's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Moderna stock will not fluctuate a lot when Moderna's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Moderna in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Moderna's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Moderna options trading.

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When determining whether Moderna offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moderna's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moderna Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moderna Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moderna to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.85)
Earnings Share
(12.33)
Revenue Per Share
17.927
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.45)
Return On Assets
(0.12)
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.