ArcelorMittal Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MT Stock  USD 25.63  0.30  1.16%   
ArcelorMittal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ArcelorMittal stock prices and determine the direction of ArcelorMittal SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ArcelorMittal historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ArcelorMittal naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of ArcelorMittal SA ADR systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ArcelorMittal fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcelorMittal to cross-verify your projections.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 0.97 in 2024. At this time, ArcelorMittal's Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable as compared to the past year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 1.1 B in 2024, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (2.7 B) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-08 ArcelorMittal Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ArcelorMittal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest ArcelorMittal's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies ArcelorMittal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ArcelorMittal's open interest, investors have to compare it to ArcelorMittal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ArcelorMittal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ArcelorMittal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ArcelorMittal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ArcelorMittal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ArcelorMittal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
ArcelorMittal simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for ArcelorMittal SA ADR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as ArcelorMittal SA ADR prices get older.

ArcelorMittal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 25.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ArcelorMittal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ArcelorMittal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ArcelorMittal Stock Forecast Pattern

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ArcelorMittal Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ArcelorMittal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ArcelorMittal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.92 and 27.34, respectively. We have considered ArcelorMittal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.63
25.63
Expected Value
27.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ArcelorMittal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ArcelorMittal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7837
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0067
MADMean absolute deviation0.3293
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors19.76
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting ArcelorMittal SA ADR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ArcelorMittal observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for ArcelorMittal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ArcelorMittal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ArcelorMittal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.9625.6927.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.1529.6831.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.6126.0926.80
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
30.0032.9736.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ArcelorMittal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ArcelorMittal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ArcelorMittal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ArcelorMittal SA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for ArcelorMittal

For every potential investor in ArcelorMittal, whether a beginner or expert, ArcelorMittal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ArcelorMittal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ArcelorMittal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ArcelorMittal's price trends.

ArcelorMittal Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ArcelorMittal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ArcelorMittal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ArcelorMittal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Tyson FoodsArhaus IncBBB FoodsUpper Street MarketingPinduoduoLululemon AthleticaNatural AlternativesAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ArcelorMittal SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ArcelorMittal's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ArcelorMittal's current price.

ArcelorMittal Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ArcelorMittal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ArcelorMittal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ArcelorMittal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ArcelorMittal SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ArcelorMittal Risk Indicators

The analysis of ArcelorMittal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ArcelorMittal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ArcelorMittal stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

ArcelorMittal Investors Sentiment

The influence of ArcelorMittal's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in ArcelorMittal. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to ArcelorMittal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ArcelorMittal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ArcelorMittal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ArcelorMittal SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
ArcelorMittal's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for ArcelorMittal's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average ArcelorMittal's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on ArcelorMittal.

ArcelorMittal Implied Volatility

    
  77.39  
ArcelorMittal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ArcelorMittal SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ArcelorMittal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ArcelorMittal stock will not fluctuate a lot when ArcelorMittal's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ArcelorMittal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ArcelorMittal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ArcelorMittal options trading.

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When determining whether ArcelorMittal SA ADR is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if ArcelorMittal Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Arcelormittal Sa Adr Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Arcelormittal Sa Adr Stock:

Complementary Tools for ArcelorMittal Stock analysis

When running ArcelorMittal's price analysis, check to measure ArcelorMittal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ArcelorMittal is operating at the current time. Most of ArcelorMittal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ArcelorMittal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ArcelorMittal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ArcelorMittal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ArcelorMittal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ArcelorMittal. If investors know ArcelorMittal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ArcelorMittal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.01)
Dividend Share
0.5
Earnings Share
1.09
Revenue Per Share
40.5435
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
The market value of ArcelorMittal SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ArcelorMittal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ArcelorMittal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ArcelorMittal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ArcelorMittal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ArcelorMittal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ArcelorMittal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ArcelorMittal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ArcelorMittal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.