Micron Technology Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

MU Stock  USD 117.89  1.25  1.05%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 119.09 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.80  and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.29. Micron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Micron Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Micron Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Micron Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Micron Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Micron Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Micron Technology fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Micron Stock please use our How to Invest in Micron Technology guide.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 2.21 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 5.02 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 783.8 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to gain to about (6.4 B) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Micron Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Micron Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Micron Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Micron Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Micron Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Micron Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Micron Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Micron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Micron Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Micron Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Micron Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Micron Technology works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Micron Technology Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 119.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 7.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Micron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Micron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Micron Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Micron TechnologyMicron Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Micron Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Micron Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Micron Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.26 and 121.92, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
117.89
116.26
Downside
119.09
Expected Value
121.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Micron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Micron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4019
MADMean absolute deviation1.8015
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors106.2873
When Micron Technology prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Micron Technology trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Micron Technology observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Micron Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micron Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
115.06117.89120.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
106.10122.72125.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
80.0199.45118.89
Details
38 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
67.3273.9882.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Micron Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Micron Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Micron Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Micron Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for Micron Technology

For every potential investor in Micron, whether a beginner or expert, Micron Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Micron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Micron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Micron Technology's price trends.

Micron Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Micron Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Micron Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Micron Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Micron Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Micron Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Micron Technology's current price.

Micron Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Micron Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Micron Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Micron Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Micron Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Micron Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Micron Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Micron Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting micron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Micron Technology is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Micron Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Micron Technology Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Micron Technology Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Micron Stock please use our How to Invest in Micron Technology guide.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

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When running Micron Technology's price analysis, check to measure Micron Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Micron Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Micron Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Micron Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Micron Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Micron Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Micron Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Micron Technology. If investors know Micron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Micron Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Dividend Share
0.46
Earnings Share
(3.43)
Revenue Per Share
16.67
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.577
The market value of Micron Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Micron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Micron Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Micron Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Micron Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Micron Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Micron Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Micron Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Micron Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.