Unknown Indicator

A naive forecasting model for equity instruments is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of price value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of price. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict equity instruments. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Naive Prediction In A Nutshell

When using the naïve prediction, it is good for only a time series. Knowing how to compare and use data is important because there are hundreds upon hundreds of ways to analyze data and you have to be sure you are effectively analyzing the data.

If you find yourself looking at data, using naïve prediction is typically used as the benchmark predication, and takes previous data and does not alter it, allowing you to use other prediction models against it to see how they are doing.

Closer Look at Naive Prediction

Another aspect to look using naïve prediction is there could be seasonality in the market you are examining and this approach may not be the best to use. There are other factors to keep in mind such as drift and a shift in the average.

These are in depth formulas that can be manipulated and changed, but it is important to understand what goes into the equation because with that you can narrow in on the specific data that may be altering the results. There are many different resources to use on the Internet so be sure to fully understand what is happening before using this in your current setup. Join an investing group and see if other people are using this as you may find it is not widely used due to a various of reasons. Also, check out Macroaxis as there are many useful tools that can help expand your current trading setup.

Investing Ideas

You can quickly originate your optimal portfoio using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Thematic Ideas
Explore Investing Ideas  
Check out your portfolio center. Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Other Complementary Tools

Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Shere Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go