NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NBY Stock | USD 0.08 0 1.33% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.33. NovaBay Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. NovaBay |
Most investors in NovaBay Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as NovaBay Pharmaceuticals prices get older. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000071, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NovaBay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
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NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0008 and 5.94, respectively. We have considered NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.553 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0011 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0053 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0403 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.3258 |
Predictive Modules for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NovaBay Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for NovaBay Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in NovaBay, whether a beginner or expert, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NovaBay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NovaBay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price trends.NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NovaBay Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NovaBay Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NovaBay Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NovaBay Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 394737.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1146 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0811 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0821 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.0035 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.0011 |
NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting novabay stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.83 | |||
| Variance | 34.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy NovaBay Stock please use our How to Invest in NovaBay Pharmaceuticals guide.Note that the NovaBay Pharmaceuticals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for NovaBay Stock analysis
When running NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals. If investors know NovaBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NovaBay Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.96) | Revenue Per Share 3.494 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.023 | Return On Assets (0.25) | Return On Equity (1.39) |
The market value of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NovaBay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NovaBay Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.