The9 Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NCTY Stock | USD 6.72 0.21 3.23% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The9 Ltd ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.62. The9 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast The9 stock prices and determine the direction of The9 Ltd ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of The9's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although The9's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of The9's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of The9 fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The9 to cross-verify your projections. The9 |
Most investors in The9 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the The9's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets The9's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
The9 simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for The9 Ltd ADR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as The9 Ltd ADR prices get older. The9 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The9 Ltd ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict The9 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that The9's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
The9 Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest The9 | The9 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
The9 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting The9's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. The9's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.96 and 12.47, respectively. We have considered The9's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of The9 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent The9 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8544 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0128 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.256 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0442 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.6162 |
Predictive Modules for The9
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The9 Ltd ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The9's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for The9
For every potential investor in The9, whether a beginner or expert, The9's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. The9 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in The9. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying The9's price trends.The9 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with The9 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of The9 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing The9 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
The9 Ltd ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of The9's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of The9's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
The9 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how The9 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading The9 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying The9 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The9 Ltd ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The9 Risk Indicators
The analysis of The9's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in The9's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the9 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.28 | |||
| Variance | 39.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 38.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 31.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The9 to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for The9 Stock analysis
When running The9's price analysis, check to measure The9's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy The9 is operating at the current time. Most of The9's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of The9's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move The9's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of The9 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is The9's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of The9. If investors know The9 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about The9 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.80) | Revenue Per Share 53.136 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.286 | Return On Assets (0.20) | Return On Equity (1.38) |
The market value of The9 Ltd ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of The9 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of The9's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is The9's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because The9's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect The9's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between The9's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if The9 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, The9's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.